Off the Crossbar: Upending the status quo

English soccer in the 21st century has been largely dominated by a so-called "Big Six" — Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester City. In England, the top four teams in the league qualify for the prestigious UEFA Champions League and, over the last 15 years, clubs from this "Big Six" have been England’s only representatives in the continental competition on all but two occasions: Everton in the 2004–05 campaign and Leicester’s famous fairytale run to the title during the 2015–16 season.

Leicester’s incredible campaign woke up the "Big Six," as it was the first time since the 1994–95 Blackburn Rovers that a club outside the group had claimed the league crown. It led to a purple patch for English soccer, as the top teams spent big and the league gained popularity worldwide — culminating in their incredible continental success last season. English clubs monopolized the European competitions, with Liverpool defeating Tottenham in the Champions League final, while Chelsea triumphed over Arsenal in the Europa League.

This season, though, the balance of power has shifted. Leicester, again, is raining on the "Big Six" parade. Led by talismanic striker Jamie Vardy, manager Brendan Rodgers’ men currently lie comfortably in third place with 50 points. And while Chelsea sits in fourth (45 points) and United is fifth (42 points), both sides have struggled mightily with inconsistency — as such, places five through 11 in the table are separated by just five points. With 10 games still remaining, there is ample time for teams like Sheffield United (40 points) and Wolves (42 points) to land an improbable spot in the Champions League. While Sheffield United is relatively inexperienced, Wolves is a side largely consisting of talented international-caliber players. With manager Nuno Espírito Santo at the helm, the team is more than capable of putting together a nice string of results and finishing above Chelsea or United.

If there’s any season that sides outside the "Big Six" have a chance to break up the status quo, it’s this one. For one, it’s the most even Premier League table I can recall in my lifetime. According to 538 projections, fourth placed Chelsea is currently on pace for a 62-point finish — which would be the lowest for a top four spot since Everton in 2005. And, with Manchester City unlikely to be eligible for European play next year (due to recent scandals), the fifth placed team in the Premier League table will likely also get a berth in the Champions League.

The importance of playing in Europe cannot be understated. Financially, the big clubs rely on their revenue to foot their wage bills and transfer fees, while for the smaller clubs it gives them spending power that they otherwise wouldn’t have. Furthermore, the top players all want to play in the best competitions, and so recruiting players gets much easier when clubs are able to offer the allure of Champions League nights.

If Sheffield or Wolves manage to unseat Chelsea or United and claim that last Champions League spot, it will be the first time this century that two of the four spots will go to clubs outside the traditional "Big Six," and could signal a shift in power for the next generation of English soccer.