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The Tufts Daily
Where you read it first | Friday, March 29, 2024

The Anti-Bostonian: Brees over Brady

jeremy

The illustrious careers of Drew Brees and Tom Brady are similar in many elements. Both make up for a lack of intrinsic athleticism with an eye for an open receiver, where they both nestle in dainty spirals in the smallest of windows against airtight coverage. They’ve both received individual accolades, tasted Super Bowl glory -- of course, one more than the other -- and have been cast as figureheads for their respective franchises and perhaps even regions. They inspire hope, passion, dedication and trust.

Both players have also lost at home in the playoffs against the still-quarterback-deprived New York Jets.

No, this is not a misprint. Brees was a young Charger who fell to a name only a Jets fan could love: Chad Pennington, 2005 edition. Brady’s defeat? Perhaps the wound is still fresh. Mark Sanchez deposed of him in 2011. Those pre-butt-fumble days were some to remember, huh.

A meme of a franchise (the Jets) aside, the Brees-Brady argument has finally begun to pick of steam this season. Why? For one, Aaron Rodgers is playing himself out of the conversation thanks to an uninspiring season that included a bleak loss in Foxborough earlier this month. Rodgers is younger than the counterparts in the conversation, but has a lot of legacy building to make up. The 'pure talent' card is starting to sound tired for the cheesehead.

But a similar narrative has consistently been used against Brees to dismiss his credentials. He has one ring, or he hasn't made the playoffs enough, they chirp. These claims aren’t false, but they’re just taken out of context. This context requires one to remove themselves from the notion that individuals decide the outcomes of team sports in isolation. More importantly, it must allow one to not treat championship rings as an end-all-be-all. Robert Horry, though charmingly known as Big Shot Robhas seven NBA rings. Michael Jordan, the ultimate closer, has six. They’re important, but analytics should dim their universality.

The New Orleans Saints in the Drew Brees era have suffered systemic shortcomings. In 2012, the Saints had the worst statistical defense of all time by yards allowed. From 2014 to 2016, the defense never ranked higher than 28th in points allowed per game. A FiveThirtyEight study revealed that instead of a trio of 7–9 seasons, they would have won 10 more games over that period with even just an 'average' defense.

Over that same time period, Tom Brady with an average defense would have lost two more games. The net three-year total in terms of wins for Brees would have been 31, and 33 for Brady.

Now look at the Saints over the past two seasons with an above-average defense. Brees’ Saints are 8–1 this season and have surpassed the Patriots by Vegas’ estimation even before a 51–14 beatdown of the Bengals this weekend -- mind you, the Patriots lost to the Titans. The Saints' lone loss of the season? Brees put up 40 in Week 1 against Fitzmagic and the Bucs, and still lost.

Oh well.