Welcome to The Coin Toss, where I make bold predictions about your favorite professional sports.
Last week’s predictions went one-for-three, thanks to the Vikings beating the Eagles in Philadelphia. Josh Rosen didn’t break out with three-plus touchdowns (only one), and the Titans lost to the Bills after I predicted a 20-point blowout.
These are bold predictions, so I like to think getting one isn’t bad, even if it was the most likely one! Onward to week six…
Patriots and Chiefs top 58.5-point over/under
Vegas knows that this showdown between the Patriots and Chiefs is going to be a shootout. The over/under for points scored between the two teams has opened at 58.5 points. That’s the highest mark of the week and deservedly so. There will be a lot of points scored in this game, and I’ll take it a step further and predict the over on the point line.
The stats, as well as the eye test, back up my prediction here. This is a battle of two high-powered offenses led by human stat machine Patrick Mahomes and the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady. The Chiefs have scored 35 points per game this year (second in the league), while the Patriots have scored 26.6.
While the Patriots’ defense has been solid, this will be their toughest test yet. For KC’s defense, they have struggled to the tune of 25.8 points allowed per game this year, putting them well within the bottom half of the league in that category. There will be plenty of points scored, but I predict at least 59.
Titans defeat Ravens at home
I’m rolling with the Tennessee Titans, even after their stinker against the Bills last week that undercut my prediction. They face Baltimore at home next week and are 1.5-point underdogs at home. I believe that line is generous, as the Ravens should be the favorites by a good bit. I’ll repeat it because it frustrates me: The Titans lost to the Bills last week!
I maintain that the Titans are a good football team that had a bad week against the lowly Bills, just like the powerhouse Vikings. They’ve shown flashes of brilliance this year and now it feels like they have something to prove. They’re facing a beatable team — albeit a good team — this week in front of their home crowd. Tennessee should be considered the underdogs, and I see them getting the (debatable) upset over Baltimore.
Bears get three or more picks for third straight game
This may not seem like a bold prediction because Chicago’s defense has been fantastic so far. The Bears have eight interceptions in their four games so far this season, with only the Seahawks (nine) and the Dolphins (10) having more.
It just so happens that Miami and Chicago play each other this week. Ryan Tannehill has thrown five picks this year, which isn’t a staggeringly high number, but the Bears have a stout defense that has three picks in each of their last two games. Coming off their bye, I think they’ll do it again.