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The Tufts Daily
Where you read it first | Saturday, April 20, 2024

Changing of the guard at RB?

There is no other way to begin this column than to lament the loss of superstar, centerpiece, carry-monster and fantasy mainstay -- Jamaal Charles. After wishing your top-five pick a speedy recovery from what is currently being reported as a season-ending ACL tear, you should explore backups Charcandrick West and/or Knile Davis. West acted as Charles' replacement in Kansas City's Oct. 11 game against Chicago, but the undrafted rookie is likely stuck in a committee with former third-round pick and three-year veteran Davis. Expect 10 to 15 carries per game for West and around 10 touches per game for Davis going forward, but downgrade the offense as a whole. Normally receivers would benefit from more targets in this sort of situation, but there is no reason to expect that in an Alex Smith-led "offense."

If you own Atlanta's Devonta Freeman, I recommend trading high. Seven touchdowns, 262 yards on the ground and another 177 yards through the air over his last three games is an obviously unsustainable pace. The talent, role and offense are present, so the only real concern is injury and a surprisingly average 3.8 yards per carry. Chicago's Matt Forte is a sneaky buy low right now. His schedule will lighten considerably after the Bears' week 7 bye and when injured star receiver Alshon Jeffery returns to stretch the field.

Looking at the high scorers among running backs in week five, youth jumps off the page. Tampa Bay's Doug Martin leads the list with over 150 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns, his second 100 yard-plus game in a row. Freeman is next, followed by Justin Forsett of Baltimore, whose low career usage qualifies him as "young" and then Seattle's Thomas Rawls, who rushed for 169 yards and a touchdown against a solid Cincinnati run defense. Teammate Marshawn Lynch is considered questionable for week 6, but my bet is he could be held out or limited until Seattle plays Dallas in week 8.

Todd Gurley is clearly a feature back, ripping off 159 yards against Green Bay, but St. Louis better stop giving the rookie 30 carries in a blowout loss. That kind of workload is a sure bet to wear him down. I'm saving face here for advocating Jacksonville's Allen Robinson over him two weeks ago.

Jeremy Hill's disappearing act continues, and if you weren't smart enough to trade him away after last week's three-touchdown effort, you are likely stuck with him until he rips off another couple TDs. Since he's averaging almost two fewer yards per carry than last year and has an ugly schedule for the rest of the season, it is highly unlikely we see the Cincinnati halfback turn this season around.

Green Bay's Eddie Lacy is a must start every week, and owners can be confident when, next week, the Packers take on the San Diego Chargers -- who have allowed an average of 121.8 rushing yards per game and a touchdown to running backs through five weeks. Side note: his teammate Aaron Rodgers hadn't thrown an interception at home in almost three calendar years. 

I hate to be that guy, but Denver's Peyton Manning owns a 6:7 TD to interception ratio right now. His passer rating and yards per attempt are also the lowest they have been since his rookie season. If he has a good game, trade him immediately.