For more than a decade, the New England Patriots have been the class of the NFL. They have won at least 10 games in each of the last 11 seasons and won the AFC East in all but one of those years. The one season in which they missed the playoffs was the year franchise quarterback Tom Brady missed almost the entire season with a knee injury.
This has been a period of success unrivaled in the NFL, and has all come with Brady and genius coach Bill Belichick at the helm. They are two of the best ever at their respective jobs, and entered this season geared to be Super Bowl contenders once again, primed to extend their dominant run.
But across four games, the Patriots have scarcely shown any signs that they might have been in the midst of a historically great run. They’ve stumbled to a 2-2 record, most recently being trounced in every phase of the game by the Kansas City Chiefs. Coming on Monday Night Football in a nationally-televised, prime time matchup, the Patriots were embarrassed and exposed. In the days since, many analysts have wondered whether this could be the beginning of the end of the Pats’ storied stretch. Fans across New England are asking some variation of the same question: what’s wrong with the Patriots?
If there were a simple answer to that question, the team probably wouldn’t be sitting at 2-2. There are problems on both sides of the ball, but the major issue is with the offense. Tom Brady-led offenses over the last 10 years have always been efficient, point-producing machines. Excluding 2008, the year Brady missed due to injury, the Patriots have been in the top-six in the NFL in points per game each year since 2005. So far this season, they’re 24th out of 32 teams. According to the metric DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), the Patriots have been fourth or better in offensive efficiency every year that Brady has been healthy since 2005, while being the most efficient team four times over that span. So far this year they rank 28th.
Every part of the offense is to blame for this massive dearth of production, including Tom Brady himself. He hasn’t been quite as accurate as people are used to seeing and, at 37, may be nearing the end of his brilliant career. The onus isn’t just on the quarterback, however. The Patriots' management has failed to surround him with enough talented players. Two receivers that were supposed to see major improvements as second-year players, Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins, were healthy scratches Monday night. Their top wideout, and the only one Brady has seemingly any trust in, is Julian Edelman, who went undrafted as a quarterback out of college. The most talented pass catcher on the team is Rob Gronkowski, who is obviously still limited by his recovery from knee surgery that ended his 2013 season.
But over the course of his career, Brady hasn’t always had a star-studded crew of receivers to throw to. In the past, he has undoubtedly been able to succeed and excel with a significantly less talented supporting cast. This is what makes his struggles this season surprising. Part of the answer can be attributed to Brady’s decline, but a huge portion of the blame rests on the offensive line. Just before the season began, Belichick dealt guard Logan Mankins, a team leader as well as the heart and soul of the offensive line, to the Buccaneers after Mankins refused to restructure his contract. The move shocked many and has left holes in Brady's protection.
Within four games, Belichick has played musical chairs on the line, shifting players endlessly in a search to find an effective combination of blockers. Instead, the linemen have looked like human turnstiles, allowing pass rushers to reach Brady in the backfield easily and often. They haven’t been able to protect the quarterback, and Brady has looked very uncomfortable in the pocket as a result.
Part of the reason for the Patriots’ continuous success is their ability to correct their flaws over the course of the season. Belichick is one of the best coaches of all time, and surely has the capacity to right the ship, at least to some extent. Brady will likely gain confidence with his receivers as time goes on and start to look more competent under center. The ability to rectify weaknesses and improve is the mark of a great coach and team. The Patriots can do both.
The expectations coming into the season were that the Patriots could contend for the AFC title and the Super Bowl. Currently, they look like a far cry from a championship team. Given the Patriot's sustained excellence, their fans have high demands for their team, but barring an immediate and drastic change, this season is likely to end in disappointment.
