Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has put together the most impressive individual performance in the history of the National Football League this season through 12 games.
Leading the Packers to a perfect 12−0 record after Week 13, Rodgers is on pace to break major passing records — including yards and completion percentage — and threaten Tom Brady's single−season record of 50 passing touchdowns.
This year has been the year of the quarterback. Carolina Panthers rookie Cam Newton has broken the single−season quarterback rushing touchdown record of 12. Tim Tebow has brought the Denver Broncos from last place to first place by winning six of his seven starts, including five straight. And multiple quarterbacks are on pace to break Dan Marino's record for passing yards.
Yet, Aaron Rodgers has managed to make all of this seem trivial and inconsequential with his otherworldly play.
At a glance, the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees appears to be having an MVP−type season, leading the league in passing yards with 4,301, and tied for second with 30 touchdowns and a 70.4 completion percentage. Brees, however, has posted a passer rating under 100 in four of 12 games, throwing multiple interceptions in each of them.
Additionally, Brees' stats were padded in the Saints' 62−7 beatdown of the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7. In that game, Brees threw for five touchdowns and completed 88.6 percent of his passes, a full 13.6 percentage points higher than his second−best effort. While playing the hypothetical game is always fun, it is pretty safe to say that Rodgers would have performed comparably against the inept Indianapolis defense.
Factoring in statistics, performance in the clutch and team record, the gold standard for a quarterback season is Brady's 2007 campaign.
That year, Brady surpassed Peyton Manning's single−season passing touchdown record of 49 by throwing 50 of his own. Additionally, Brady led the league with a 68.9 completion percentage, 4,806 passing yards, 8.3 yards per attempt and a 117.2 passer rating, as the Pats finished a perfect 16−0.
This year, Rodgers tops the league with 37 passing touchdowns, a 70.6 percent completion percentage, 9.4 yards per attempt and — if it holds for the rest of the season — a record−setting 125.3 passer rating. Rodgers is on pace to surpass Brady in every statistical category except for passing touchdowns, where he projects to fall short by one.
Even with that torrid pace, Rodgers' and Brady's statistical seasons are almost interchangeable. However, when factoring in the help Rodgers and Brady both received from their respective defenses, Rodgers pulls away.
The 2007 Patriots defense ranked fourth in the league in both yards allowed per game (288.3) and points allowed per game (17.1). The 2011 Packers unit ranks 31st in yards allowed per game (397.8) and 16th in points allowed per game (21.8). Brady had nearly five more points of margin to work with than Rodgers currently has. Given that disparity, it is no surprise that the Packers have played more close games than the Patriots did, thereby putting more pressure on Rodgers to perform.
In three of the Patriots' four closest games — 24−20 over the Colts, 31−28 over the Eagles and 27−24 over the Ravens — Brady posted passer ratings under 100. Rodgers has not posted a passer rating under 106.2 in any game this season.
Continuing in the who−is−more−clutch vein, Rodgers has significantly outshined Mr. Clutch himself when it matters this year. In the fourth quarter, with the score within seven points, Brady completed only 58.9 percent of his passes for four TDs, one interception and a passer rating of 108.9. Rodgers, on the other hand, is completing 75 percent of his passes, including five TDs and zero interceptions, with a passer rating of 156.3.
In other words, Rodgers is nearly perfect in the fourth quarter in one−possession games. While there is no comprehensive list for the highest such ratings of all−time, you would be hard−pressed to find a more impressive figure given that the maximum passer rating is 158.3.
Rodgers' late−game prowess was on full display this past Sunday when he marched the Packers from their own 20 to the New York Giants' 12−yard line in four plays with just 58 seconds on the clock, setting up the game−winning field goal as time expired.
Looking ahead, Green Bay plays three of its final four games at Lambeau Field and none against any team in the top 10 in pass defense. The only thing seemingly standing in the way of Rodgers and the record books is his own organization; if the Packers clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC during the next two weeks, head coach Mike McCarthy may be tempted to rest Rodgers and his other starters in Weeks 16 and 17.
