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The Tufts Daily
Where you read it first | Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Inside NCAA Football | Boise State Broncos may buck BCS

Take a look at a congressperson's agenda, and you will likely see a list of the important issues of the day: the Gulf Oil Spill, the economy, the Iraq War, and … the Boise State football team.

It is a testament to the magnitude of the greatest debate in sports that the nation's government has taken notice. The House Energy and Commerce Committee is looking to have the IRS review the tax−exempt status of the BCS bowls in an effort to eventually eliminate them entirely in favor of a playoff system that would benefit non−BCS schools like Boise State. This latest piece of legislation is hitting the floor at the apex of the controversy, as Alabama, which was No. 1 in the country, fell this past weekend, and reports are leaking that the Broncos will be No. 1 in the first BCS rankings of the season, due to come out next week.

For those living under a rock, it's time to get acquainted with the No. 3 Boise State Broncos, the most controversial athletes since Barry Bonds.

They are winners of 19 straight games dating back to last season. They returned 21 of 22 starters from last year's Fiesta Bowl winning side, including Heisman candidate Kellen Moore, who in five games has thrown for 1,336 yards and 14 touchdowns while only tossing one interception. His 183.3 passer rating leads the nation.

They opened the season by defeating Virginia Tech — which many analysts consider the favorite to win the ACC — in a virtual home game for the Hokies, and followed it up three weeks later by convincingly taking down Oregon State, which sits at the top of the Pac 10 standings. In fact, they have not lost to a team from a BCS conference since 2007.

So where is the controversy? Well, half of the country does not believe this résumé merits consideration for the National Championship Game, even if the Broncos finish the regular season undefeated. They cite Boise State's weak conference, the Western Athletic Conference (WAC), which only includes one other ranked team, and the Broncos' easy schedule. They say teams from the Pac−10, SEC, Big 12, and Big 10 — even some that may end the season with losses — are more deserving. After all, Alabama had to play three straight ranked teams in the past three weeks, something the Broncos would never have to do.

But while you may hear this type of reasoning from the guy sitting next to you in lecture, you will not hear a word from the coaches of the other programs competing for those two priceless spots in the title game. After all, Chip Kelly, head coach of the No. 2 Oregon Ducks, will not be sounding off after his team was defeated just last year by a nearly identical Broncos squad. Nor will you hear anything out of the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners coach Bob Stoops, whose squad lost to Boise State in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl.

To top it off, much of the talk about Boise State's weak schedule is a myth. Take this past week for example. The Broncos defeated Toledo by a large margin, while fellow contenders Ohio State and Oregon similarly dispatched Washington State and Indiana. At face value, it would seem that the Buckeyes and Ducks had more impressive victories, as their opponents are household names.

But taking a look at the situation statistically yields a different conclusion. Computer rankings have Toledo at 57, while Indiana and Washington State are both below 80. In truth, it was Boise State that had the most impressive victory.

A broader look at the teams' schedules shows a similar trend. Assuming Virginia finishes in the top 25, the Broncos will likely have had three ranked teams on their schedule. This compares favorably to other undefeated top−10 squads, including the No. 1 Buckeyes (two ranked teams to date), the Ducks (three), No. 5 Nebraska (two), and No. 6 Oklahoma (three). What makes their roads any tougher?

The exception to the rule is the SEC, undoubtedly the toughest conference in the nation. Yet with Alabama getting knocked off, the conference may not have an undefeated team to put into the conversation. No. 7 Auburn and No. 9 LSU both appear to be pretenders, barely scraping by each week. Alabama and South Carolina are the stronger teams, but each has a loss, which may keep them out of contention.

If Ohio State and Oregon both remain undefeated, they will likely surpass Boise State by the end of the year. But if either is defeated, the question would likely be whether a one−loss squad is more deserving than the Broncos. It is tough to argue that a team that has not lost in two years is less deserving than one who lost in the last few months.

There is the possibility that Boise State will be knocked off, ending the entire debate. The Broncos will travel to Reno on November 26 to take on No. 19 Nevada. The Wolf Pack is soaring through its schedule, and most impressively embarrassed California 52−31. A slip up from Boise could be the end for the Broncos.

While the debate has created national headlines and even made it into the nation's capital, the solution is simple enough. Give the Broncos one chance to prove themselves on January 10 in Glendale, Arizona. If they lose, no one will be able to question the system again. But if they win, the whole country will be forced to take notice.