If it seems odd to be considering the potential demise of a team that was on a four−game winning streak heading into last night's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers and is closer to creeping up on the team with the second−best record in the West, the Dallas Mavericks, than giving up a playoff spot, that's because it is.
And yet, one can't help but wonder if the San Antonio Spurs' run as annual NBA title contenders has come to an end.
Last year was the first time the Spurs had not won a title in an odd calendar year since 2001, when the Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant−led Los Angeles Lakers were in the midst of their three−peat. It was also the first time since the 2000 playoffs that San Antonio was sent packing in the first round, as the Mavericks made quick work of Tim Duncan and company in a 4−1 series win, which included a humiliating 88−67 Dallas victory in Game 3.
After the offseason, many felt that the Spurs would challenge the Lakers in the West if San Antonio stayed healthy. Now, with Tony Parker's broken hand likely keeping him off the court for the foreseeable future, it begs the question: Is this the devastating injury that will cause the Spurs to miss out on the playoffs for the first time in Tim Duncan's career, and only the fifth time since San Antonio joined the NBA in the 1976−77 season?
Parker, who had already missed time this season with an ankle injury as well as a hip flexor issue that flared up in the last couple of weeks, will now likely miss the rest of the regular season, leaving the Spurs without their best playmaker and floor general as they head down the stretch run. Despite his numerous injury struggles this year, Parker was still averaging 16.5 points and 5.7 assists per game, well below his numbers from the last few seasons but still enough to help complement Duncan.
San Antonio has gone 5−5 in the 10 games Parker has missed this season, and, interestingly, has suffered more on defense statistically — giving up 95.4 points per game without him in the lineup as opposed to 101.9 points with — than on offense. Still, a Spurs team that was already relatively thin at guard with the departure of Michael Finley now has to rely more on Manu Ginobili and Richard Jefferson to shoulder the load in Parker's absence as George Hill will likely take the point−guard duties.
It was Ginobili who missed much of last season, playing in only 44 games and missing the playoffs due to an ankle injury. Ginobili has struggled in his return this season, posting the lowest field−goal percentage of his career and the worst points−per−game average since his second season. But he has shown flashes of his past brilliance, coming through with 20−point games in seven of the Spurs' 11 contests in the month of February.
Jefferson, on the other hand, has largely been a disappointment. San Antonio was lauded this summer for acquiring him from the Milwaukee Bucks, giving the Spurs a relatively young scorer to help reinvigorate the team. But Jefferson has averaged just 12.1 points, 7.5 fewer than last season, and has not provided the scoring punch many had envisioned. Gregg Popovich will now likely try to give Jefferson a larger role to try to reignite his offensive game.
Hill should take over as the floor general. Even before Parker's injury, he was on a roll, leading his team in scoring in six of its last 15 games. Hill, the second−year guard from IUPUI, has been playing big minutes for Popovich and will be increasingly relied on now.
Still, the fate of the Spurs will really rest with one man: Tim Duncan. Though he is now 33, Duncan has not lost much of a step. He is still one of the top 10 rebounders in the NBA and averages almost 20 points per game. Duncan might be on the downside of his brilliant career, but he is still capable of carrying this team into the playoffs.
The Spurs have some quality big men around Duncan, including veteran Antonio McDyess and rookie DeJuan Blair. But Duncan will need to be dominant in the middle and get easy shots to offset the loss of Parker.
San Antonio's win last Saturday over the Memphis Grizzlies was important, as the Grizzlies are chasing both the Spurs and the Portland Trail Blazers for the last spot in the Western Conference playoffs. But we will really know what this team is made of in a five−game stretch that starts March 21, featuring visits to Atlanta, Oklahoma City and Boston and home games versus the two teams with the best record in the NBA: the Lakers and the Cavaliers.
While the sun might be setting on the Spurs in the next few seasons, they are still a team that no one will want to face come April. Even if San Antonio is unlikely to challenge for a title, it still has the pedigree to steal a playoff series. The question is whether the Spurs can still get there without one of their fearless leaders in the lineup.
