Needless to say, it's been a strange few days for the women's basketball team.
Accustomed to gearing up for the NESCAC semifinals this time of year, Tufts is instead dealing with the aftermath of last weekend's overtime loss to Bowdoin in the first round of the conference tournament. Not only was it the Jumbos' earliest exit from NESCACs in four years, but it also left the team in a virtual holding pattern for the last week. At−large bids to the NCAA Tournament won't be awarded until Monday at 12:30 pm, and, until then, Tufts has been forced to wait anxiously to see if the selection committee will breathe new life into its 2009−10 campaign.
"I feel that we have a shot at it, and that's why we're practicing this week and getting ready for the opportunity to extend our season," said coach Carla Berube, who, as a member of the Northeast regional advisory committee, helps evaluate teams during the selection process. "You've got to put the whole body of work into consideration. With our record and our strength of schedule, I think we have a very good shot."
Only one team — the 2004−05 Wesleyan Cardinals — has ever received an invite to March Madness after going one−and−done in the NESCAC Tournament. And considering how the end of this season has unfolded, the selection committee just might have enough reason to keep Tufts from becoming the second. Since Feb. 6, the Jumbos have lost three of four games, slipped two spots in the Northeast regional rankings and landed on the outskirts of the NCAA bubble.
But there are still many factors working in Tufts' favor. Chief amongst them is the strength of the NESCAC, which has sent at least three teams to the NCAA Tournament in four of the last five years. This season, the powerhouse conference boasts each of the top five schools in the most recent Northeast regional rankings — including arguably the nation's top team in Amherst (25−0, 9−0 NESCAC) — and looks to be as deep as ever.
Given its strength, it is "highly possible" that the NESCAC will receive three — or possibly even four — Pool C bids to the NCAA Tournament this season, according to Div. III women's basketball selection committee chair Karen Tessmer. If this is the case, Tufts, currently fourth in the Northeast rankings, looks to be in a solid position for at−large consideration.
"Traditionally — and it holds true again this year — the conference is very strong," Tessmer told the Daily. "The top teams are probably some of the best team, certainly in New England. Their records show it — they're beating all the other New England schools. They battle with each other and lose to each other, but beat everyone else around New England.
"I think the NESCAC's strength of schedule puts their schools in a favorable position compared to other schools around the country," she continued. "Certainly, the automatic qualifier is going, but then there's probably four to five other teams that have a great record and great strength of schedule, and they'll all be vying for these at−large bids. The good thing is, compared to other teams around the country, their numbers look good."
When Tessmer and the seven other members of the selection committee convene on Sunday in Indianapolis, they will decide the Jumbos' fate based, in part, on their overall body of work, which could very well override their late−season struggles. For the year, Tufts has an .810 winning percentage against the nation's third toughest in−region schedule. The Jumbos' résumé was further bolstered by regular season victories over Colby and Bowdoin, both of whom are currently ranked ahead of them in the Northeast rankings, as well as another over regional No. 6 Emmanuel.
"Not getting a chance to get a couple more wins in the conference tournament hurts, but their strength of schedule number is outstanding — that really helps," Tessmer said. "The number of ranked teams they've beaten is also important. So some things are in the favor of Tufts."
While their NCAA prospects appear promising at the moment, the Jumbos' hopes ultimately hinge on the outcomes of several postseason games that will be played this weekend. Tufts' chances of landing an at−large bid would improve tremendously if the tournament locks, including Amherst, wrapped up their respective conference titles and stayed out of Pool C. But if, for instance, Bates were to knock off the Lord Jeffs in tomorrow's NESCAC semifinal and go on to win the conference championship — an unlikely scenario, but one that is certainly not out of the realm of possibility given how well the upstart Bobcats have played of late — the Jumbos' tournament hopes would take a severe hit.
"That'll throw the whole wrench in it, I'll be completely honest," Tessmer said. "If Bates wins the whole tournament, it'll be tougher to get everyone in — someone won't get in. Bates is certainly the dark horse here."
But while the Jumbos will certainly keep their eyes on all of this weekend's happenings, they know that, at this point, their fate is out of their control.
"Whatever happens happens," Berube said. "I really like my team a lot this year, and yeah, we've slipped up a little bit in the last few weeks, but our goal is to right this ship and rise again, because we have played great basketball this year and we know what's in us. We'll see what happens."
