In New England women's cross country, with the top five teams at Regionals likely earning the available bids to Nationals, it's all a game of numbers.
And for Tufts, ranked No. 5 in the region, the math is simple. As long as the Jumbos are not upset at Saturday's race at Williams, they should have a good shot at making the trip to Hanover, Ind., for the National Championship race. The challenge lies in warding off a number of teams that threaten to bump Tufts out of contention.
"I think it's within our reach to be in the top five teams," coach Kristen Morwick said. "It's not a pipe dream. I think for that fifth spot, it's going to be us, Amherst, Bowdoin, Bates, Keene State and Brandeis -- all these teams that could come in and surprise you.
"The only thing we really have over those other teams is those top two frontrunners," she continued. "We have the No. 2 in New England -- [sophomore Stephanie McNamara] is running better than everyone but [sophomore Amy Wilfert] is significantly better than everyone else's No. 2. That really helps us in a big meet. Then, it's just a matter of the No. 3, 4 and 5 just getting as close as possible."
The Jumbos' closest threat rankings-wise is Amherst, which finished fifth at NESCAC Championships and currently sits at No. 29 in the country. The Lord Jeffs, the defending national champions, boast the league's best runner in senior quad-captain Elise Tropiano, but the team has perceptibly dropped off in recent weeks on account of physical setbacks.
"Amherst is definitely hurting," Morwick said. "They're not a very deep team, and they have had some injury and sickness issues that have taken them down a couple notches. They're still vulnerable."
"That was kind of our lineup and the way that we've been running," Amherst coach Erik Nedeau said of his team's performance at NESCACs. "While I hope that we're going to do a little bit better, that may be what we're dealing with. It's a little bit different than what we'd hoped coming into the year, but injuries sometimes change plans and change outcomes of what you hope and what you're dealing with ... We're just hoping to kind of scratch our way into a top-five finish."
Tufts will be looking to improve on its own NESCACs finish, aiming to pick off a team or two at the top in a race that will send the top two finishers to NCAAs automatically before distributing the at-large bids. And with national No. 2 Williams and No. 4 Middlebury, which split the NESCAC title with 48 points apiece, looking untouchable for the automatic berths, that feat will likely involve topping the MIT Engineers or the Colby Mules.
The Engineers have been steadily climbing the national rankings, and they currently occupy the No. 16 spot compared with Tufts' No. 23. Although the Jumbos overcame them at the Oct. 11 All-New England Championships by a three-point margin, MIT came back the following weekend to take No. 1 at the considerably smaller Williams-hosted Plansky Invitational, scoring 44 points to Tufts' 56. But as Regionals will feature many more runners, the Jumbos may have a chance to get back on top.
"MIT is another team out there that's good that we ended up beating in a larger meet," Morwick said. "I think for whatever reason, our team does okay when the field is really big. MIT hasn't run well in those kinds of meets in the past -- they're usually better when it's a smaller meet and they can all pack together and see each other."
The Engineers, on the other hand, may have more in store than they showed at All-New Englands.
"I think we went out a little too hard in the All-New England meet," MIT coach Halston Taylor said. "I think that hurt us a little bit. We were also without one of our top runners who just came back last week. With the addition of her, we're probably a little bit better team than we were at All-New Englands."
And then there is Colby, which arrived on the scene for good at last year's NESCAC Championship meet and now ranks 18th in the country. While the Mules boast a capable squad of exceptional pack runners, they lack the dominant frontrunners that characterize teams like Tufts and Amherst and for that reason have long had targets painted on their backs.
With the race coming up tomorrow, all the Jumbos can do is put faith in their training and buckle down to secure a trip to Nationals when the time comes.
"I think they've all trained well in the last week," Morwick said. "We're not really dealing with any injury issues, and everyone has had the sickness that went around campus. Physically, we're going into this thing in good shape. It's just a matter of being focused and having the right mental attitude to challenge the teams that were ahead of us and hold off the teams that were really close to us at NESCACs."
