At last year's NESCAC Championships, the Colby Mules stunned the women's cross country team, edging it by a point to push the Jumbos into sixth place.
But this year, as nationally ranked No. 34 Tufts takes on the likes of Williams, Middlebury, Amherst and Colby, which are all ranked in the top 20, there shouldn't be too many surprises, at least on the Jumbos' end.
"The top five will be the top five; it's just the order from [No.] 3 to [No.] 5 might change," coach Kristen Morwick said. "We could be third, we could be fifth -- we were a couple of points out of [fourth] last year and one point out of [fifth], so it's probably going to be a pretty close meet again."
Needless to say, Tufts will be looking for an upset. The upcoming NCAA New England Championships will determine bids to Nationals, as the top two finishers automatically qualify for the race. But New England, a historically deep region, will likely receive up to three at-large bids, consideration for which will begin with performances at NESCACs.
Currently ranked sixth in New England, Tufts will need to upset at least one team at Regionals to break into the top five, and they'll get to take a crack at two of the teams they're eyeing -- No. 10 Amherst and No. 17 Colby -- this weekend.
"I think we'd be happy with fifth, but I think we'd be thrilled with third," Morwick said. "I think Amherst looks vulnerable, and certainly Colby ... is within reach. [We'll] keep our eye on them during the race ... [and] at the end, if we can be within striking difference and close enough, I think that will make the difference."
"I definitely would consider Tufts a threat to us," Colby coach Debbie Aitken said. "They have ... very strong frontrunners, and it's hard to ignore that. We're certainly keeping our eye on them and doing what we can to be in the thick of things. We're also keeping our eye on Amherst, as Tufts is, and trying not to assume that anyone is really out of the picture."
The Jumbos will pay particular attention to the Mules, who field a very different-looking team than Tufts does. Over the past couple of seasons, the Jumbos have boasted some of the league's best runners in front but suffered from a drop-off after the lead group.
The Mules, on the other hand, finished their No. 1 through 4 runners within 25 seconds of each other at Oct. 11's All-New England Championships, although their top runner landed in 56th place overall.
"Part of our concern is that our frontrunner, at least at Open New Englands, still had [14] other NESCAC runners in front of her," Aitken said. "Obviously, part of our concern is moving our frontrunners up further in that front pack. That's one of the things we have to do."
Leading the pack certainly hasn't been a problem for the Jumbos this year thanks to sophomore Stephanie McNamara, whose breakout race came at this time last year when she established herself as one of the NESCAC's elite by taking 15th place in the conference championship. This year, with a talented group of seniors having graduated around the league -- including two of Tufts' own in Cat Beck (LA '08) and Katy O'Brien (E '08) -- McNamara has a good chance to win it all. At All-New England Championships, in terms of conference competitors, she trailed only Amherst senior quad-captain Elise Tropiano.
Sophomore Amy Wilfert will also have a chance to break some ground for the Jumbos as part of a largely successful 2008 campaign.
"On a good day, we could have another NESCAC winner," Morwick said. "Who knows what Amy can do? She's been looking great in practice, and she might sneak into the top four."
The key for Tufts will be its third through fifth runners, senior Amy Hopkins, freshman Anya Price and junior Lisa Picascia. For the Jumbos, however, the gap between No. 2 and No. 3 has been steadily narrowing over the course of the last few weeks.
"Both Amy Hopkins and Anya have been practicing really well," Morwick said. "For at least parts of workouts, they've been right there, [and] that's encouraging. They're improving every week. It's always different in a race, but I think everyone has made little improvements ... Lisa has also been running great."
Despite these gains, the Jumbos are well-aware that it's impossible to predict the results of a NESCAC race.
"Every week is so different in cross country," Morwick said. "The courses are different, the goals for every team are different ... you don't know what a team's strategy is going into a race. Maybe their top runner is dropping back to help the pack. It's not like a team sport where the goal of every game is to score goals and win -- you don't strategize to help the weaker members of your team.
"We're moving in the right direction, but so much of it is the stuff we can't control," Morwick continued. "We can have the best plan and another team can just race out of their minds. It's just an unpredictable sport ... our team knows that anything can happen. If they're smart about their strategy and can execute their plan, I think it gives us a really good chance to be successful."
