Inside the NL | Mets set sights on NL East division title hoping to avoid another September collapse
September 9The following events are all possible signs that you're not having a very good September: Your shortstop, already a two-time All-Star at age 24, hits .205/.279/.333 for the month. And to boot, he's caught stealing in four of nine attempts. Your pitching rotation, one of the league's best, manages an ERA of 5.51. The 41-year-old ace of said rotation, a virtual Cooperstown lock, goes winless in his last four starts by allowing 19 runs (all earned, of course) in 18 innings. Your team, on paper the best in the National League, loses six of its final seven games, all at home, against a motley mix of the barely .500 and the absolutely awful. Alone, any of these occurrences can be troubling. But together, they are more than the sum of their parts — they comprise quite possibly the worst collapse in the history of the National League. Such was the story of the 2007 New York Mets. A year later, everyone in Queens is now well aware that absolutely no lead is safe. And with this year's Mets finding themselves, just as they did a year ago, neck-and-neck with the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East race, there will be no room for error this September. The Mets have plenty to worry about this time around. Their closer, Billy Wagner, has a torn MCL and is out for the rest of this season and likely all of the next. One of their promising young arms, John Maine, is on the DL with bone spurs in his pitching shoulder. One of their best veteran arms, Pedro Martinez, is perfectly healthy but is starting to pitch like a 36-year-old. Note: He is one. All of that said, the Mets are still clear favorites to win the National League East. And one would be hard-pressed not to believe it after the events of this past week, as the Mets won four of six against two playoff contenders, the Phillies and the wild card-hunting Milwaukee Brewers. The hard part is over. This week the Mets kick off a 12-game stretch against the division's two bottom-feeders: six games with the bad Atlanta Braves and six with the even worse Washington Nationals, giving New York ample opportunity to pad its lead. Johan Santana is the game's greatest second-half pitcher, and the Mets will no doubt get a boost from the 9.92 strikeouts per nine he's averaged in 44 career September games. If Johan can be Johan, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey can continue their strong second halves and 21-year-old rookie finesse pitcher Jonathon Niese turns out to be the real deal, then the Mets' starting pitching should be fine. And none of that seems like too much to ask. A repeat of the rotation's 2007 meltdown seems virtually impossible. The offense, one of only two in the NL — after the Chicago Cubs — to pound out 700 runs already this season, is a non-issue. That leaves the bullpen as the Mets' only area of concern. With Wagner out of commission, the closer role falls to Aaron Heilman, a serviceable middle reliever whose walk rate has taken an alarming hike this season, especially over the last two months. After Heilman, the Mets are filling innings six through eight with a strange cast of characters. Scott Schoeneweis and Joe Smith have been two fairly solid bullpen arms this season, while Pedro Feliciano and Duaner Sanchez have been decent but unreliable. The bullpen is capable, but the Mets can afford few slip-ups if the Phillies get hot in the coming weeks. The Mets hold their fate in their own hands for these final three weeks. If they can pad their lead against the Braves and Nats now, they'll be well in front for that final week. And once again, they'll need only to survive the Florida Marlins to seal the division crown. They've been in that position before.