To say that the Democratic “establishment” is nervous about a Sanders nomination is a wild understatement. For the first time in American history, one presidential candidate has won the popular vote in the first three nominating contests. That candidate is the septuagenarian, Jewish Brooklynite-turned-GreenMountain democratic socialist Bernie Sanders. No candidate of either party or any president has ever been as successful as Bernie this early in the nominating process.
Trump lost Iowa to Cruz but rebounded in New Hampshire.
Obama came from behind to win Iowa but lost only a few days later to Clinton in New Hampshire.
John McCain won a New Hampshire primary landslide in 2000, but Bush stopped him cold in South Carolina.
Three consecutive victories have undeniably put Bernie in the driver’s seat. Of the non-self-funders in the race, Bernie leads with nearly $17 million on hand while Joe Biden has just over $7 million. FiveThirtyEight currently projects that Bernie has a 31% chance of winning the nomination, and it seems the “establishment” which Bernie so often rails against has noticed.
A recent memo from the centrist think tank Third Way was addressed to every Democratic presidential candidate with the headline, “Stand Up to Bernie or You – and We – All Lose.”
“At the Las Vegas debate … you declined to really challenge Senator Sanders. If you repeat this strategy at the South Carolina debate this week, you could hand the nomination to Sanders, likely dooming the Democratic Party,” Jonathan Cowan, president of Third Way, and Matt Bennett, executive vice president for public affairs of Third Way, wrote.
Their concerns largely reflect the fears of the entire Democratic establishment. Chris Matthews likened Sanders to 1972 presidential candidate George McGovern, who lost all but one state to Richard Nixon.
But the alarm bells they are ringing might be too little, too late. According to FiveThirtyEight, Bernie has a lead in every one of next week’s Super Tuesday states, except Oklahoma, Minnesota and Arkansas, although Sanders won a 10-point victory over Clinton in Oklahoma in 2016.
At this point, certain facts are undeniable: Bernie has the money, the momentum and the support to decisively win from here on out. He may lose a few contests here and there, but, as FiveThirtyEight acknowledges, Bernie’s greatest barrier isn’t another candidate but the possibility of a brokered convention.
Bernie may be clearing hurdles now, but as former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and his tens of billions wait in the wings, the Sanders campaign will need a true grassroots army to overcome and win the nomination outright.
Primary Colors: Dear establishment, you might be too late
