Looking In: Referendum

Turkey is having a referendum on Monday, April 16, and the question is a package of constitutional changes that empower the executive, neuter parliament and dispense with the independent judiciary. It is a referendum on whether to become a full dictatorship or continue with the status quo: dictatorship-lite.

The executive who would achieve full dominance and concentrate his power to the maximum is Turkey’s current president and former prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.Having been the premier since 2003, he is already extremely powerful and has entrenched influence in all aspects of Turkish social, political and economic life. First subtly, and then more explicitly starting in 2009, Erdoğan has been wrecking the limited democracy Turkey has had. Erdoğan rightly takes his place on the list of infamous, horrific autocrats, along with Putin, Franco and others. This referendum, if passed, will ensure his place on this list.

The package includes such changes as making the president also the official leader of a party, giving him the power to create candidate lists, to shutdown parliament, clear and reappoint all members of the judiciary, pick an unspecified number of unelected vice presidents and other such measures.

Erdoğan’s party and every government official in the country from ministers, mayors and even imams have been pushing for Yes. His campaign has even expanded into Germany and the Netherlands, where well over a million voting Turkish citizens reside, raising tensions within Europe.

The national-left and social democratic parties, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), are backing No. CHP consistently getting around 25 percent of the vote and has a reliable base supporting No.The leaders and many HDPs in parliament are currently in political prisons on made-up charges, yet their party organization is campaigning as hard as it can. Their share of the electorate is around 10 percent.

The fourth and final party in parliament, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) with 15 percent of the electorate, is currently divided. The senior members of the party have announced official support for Yes. However, many junior leaders and a strong contingent of the rank-and-file are saying No.

In this fragmented system, Erdoğan is not even sure that his own voters will all turn out for him to vote Yes. That is why he has not let up the pressure. He is speaking all over the country every day and many channels are airing his speeches live.

Still, polls are close. Many show No winning. There is a chance that Turkey will preserve the semblance of democracy it has now. I like those odds. Voting has begun in embassies and consulates across the world. By the time this column is published, I will have voted. I predict that No will win. This is coming from experience, polls, gut feeling and a small bit of wishful thinking. To all citizens of Turkey: Vote, and Vote NO.