This week, world leaders will meet in Paris for the COP21 conference on climate change. The goal is some sort of binding agreement to limit emissions, particularly in emerging economies like China and India.For President Obama, addressing climate change was a campaign promise. Through policies such as increased standards on cars (by 2025, all cars must get at least 54.5 miles per gallon), coupled with a shift away from coal to natural gas, American carbon dioxide emissions have actually fallen in Obama’s presidency. With Obama taking a leading role at this week’s conference, it is worth wondering whether our next president will share this impetus.
The Democratic candidates will all continue -- and likely do more -- to further Obama’s efforts on climate change. Hillary Clinton has laid out an ambitious plan to almost quintuple renewable energy generation by 2027 to 33 percent; Obama had called for 20 percent. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders cited climate change as America's greatest threat and even linked it to growth in terrorism.
The Republican candidates form a sort of spectrum. On one end are the total deniers, namely Ted Cruz. Cruz compared climate change activists to those who claimed the Earth was flat. As a senator from Texas, and baptized in the shadow of Calgary’s oil rigs, Cruz’s stances are none too surprising.
There’s also a group of Republicans that believes climate change is occurring but that humans are not affecting it. Donald Trump sees climate as cyclical in nature. He is currently working to prevent the Scottish government from building offshore wind turbines near one of his golf courses, as they are “horrendous looking.” Florida Senator Marco Rubio would gut the Environmental Protection Agency and believes restricting American energy production would cost jobs.
Then there are Republicans like Ohio Governor John Kasich and New Jersey Gorvernor Chris Christie, who believe in human-affected climate change. Both of these candidates would most likely continue Obama's “all of the above” energy strategy. Christie turned New Jersey into a solar powerhouse but opposes increased government interference in the energy sector. Kasich wants investments in renewables but presided over a boom in hydrocarbon production due to fracking, which he would like to expand as president.
This distribution makes sense. Registered Republicans just don’t seem to care as much about climate change as registered Democrats, according to poll numbers. Per Pew, only 14 percent of conservative Republicans, compared to over 60 percent of moderate or conservative Democrats, believe climate change to be a “very serious problem.” This number is even down from when Obama came into office. A poll out of Yale showed almost two-thirds of Republicans in favor of reducing fossil fuel use but with the primary reason being reducing dependence on imports.
With recent policy moves to curb emissions like the rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline, Obama is ratcheting up momentum ahead of the COP21 talks this week. After a Bush presidency tepid (to put it nicely) on climate change, Obama’s push in the last years of his presidency is refreshing. Whether Obama’s steps taken now will prove decisive or be rolled back could depend largely on the results of next November’s elections.
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