No, the political unrest in the Middle East has not stopped. And yes, the domino effect might just keep on going. On Saturday, the president of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, stated that he would relinquish power to his deputy 30 days after signing a hypothetical agreement that would give him, his family and his political allies immunity from prosecution.
This is just the latest "concession" from an Arab leader in response to months of protests against his undemocratic regime. What Saleh may not have realized is the "concessions" made by many of his counterparts in other Arab countries did not work. While leaders such as King Abdullah of Jordan and President Bashar al-Assad of Syria have been able to appease the masses (at least to a certain extent) with concessions short of their own resignation, others have not been so lucky. We saw it in Tunisia on Jan. 14 when then-President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali responded to protests by dissolving his government and promising new legislative elections within six months. Ben Ali didn't even last until 4 p.m. that day, when he had no other option but to resign. Ben Ali was chased out of his country, probably never to return.
We saw it the following month in Egypt, where a defiant Hosni Mubarak tried to appease protestors by announcing that he would not run for re-election in September and promising democratic reforms. Mubarak fought longer then Ben Ali, announcing at a later date that he would not resign before the elections. But Mubarak did not last much longer, as the next day his vice president, Omar Suleiman, announced that Mubarak had resigned. Mubarak has been under detention for the past week, and if not for a reported heart attack, Mubarak would be in the Tora jail with his sons, Alaa and Gamal. The younger Mubaraks, especially Gamal, who was touted by many to be the future president, have reportedly spent the last week in a state of disbelief. It remains to be seen what will happen to Libyan leader Muammar el-Qaddafi, whose refusal to buckle in the face of protests has led to a devastating civil war and military intervention from foreign Western powers.
Despite seeing how ungracefully his counterparts (as well as their families) have fallen in Tunisia and Egypt, it is amazing how Saleh is continuing to fight for his power, using many of the same tactics. His first "concession" was similar to that of Mubarak, announcing that he would not seek re-election in 2013. Just as Mubarak fired his entire cabinet as a concession, many of Saleh's party members resigned from their positions in the parliament after the government took violent action against protestors. Last month, Saleh announced a referendum that would constitutionally separate the executive and legislative powers if approved. Despite all these changes, it is inconceivable to this man, as it was to Mubarak for so long, that he must go without conditions. Indeed, it is the only "concession" the people will accept. Still, he pushes on, threatening in a Qaddafi-esque manner that civil war will occur if there are any attempts to overthrow him.
What Saleh's latest concession will actually mean in practice is unclear. Not only was Saleh's concession merely rhetorical, at this point no agreement has actually been signed, but it is also possible that Saleh's announcement was merely an attempt to placate the masses. Even so, the announcement itself will probably not please them given the terms within it regarding immunity from prosecution.
At this point, if Saleh is to leave the presidency, he will do so under a cloud of embarrassment. What he should learn from his counterparts in Tunisia, Egypt and even Libya is that the sooner he does so, the less embarrassed he may be.
