After months of buildup, polls and predictions, some of America's voters finally had the opportunity to have their say in the first steps of the 2008 presidential race this month. As both parties' races remain extremely competitive, a sharp increase in youth voter turnout is impacting the shape of the coming election.
The season kicked off with the Iowa caucus on Jan. 3, which resulted in victories for Democratic Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Republican Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas. According to the New York Times, the Democratic caucus boasted a turnout of over 239,000 people, many of whom were first-time caucus-goers, compared with fewer than 125,000 in 2004.
In an e-mail to the Daily, Associate Professor of Political Science Deborah Schildkraut said that a number of factors contributed to the increased voter turnout.
"First and foremost, both races are extraordinarily competitive," Schildkraut said. "Competitive elections always lead to higher turnout. Second, recent research has shown that face-to-face mobilization is more effective at getting people to vote than direct mail or phone calls. Candidates and their campaigns are aware of this research, and I think they've done more and more to build up their face-to-face efforts as a result."
Schildkraut added that new technologies have allowed for the "microtargeting" of voters. "Advances have made it easier for campaigns to figure out whom to target so as to maximize the bang for their buck," she said.
Signe Porteshawver, a freshman from Iowa, participated in the Democratic caucus. Porteshawver said that the increased turnout was evident to those who had previously participated.
"My parents said that it was maybe two times as many people as had been there four years ago," she said.
The caucuses are different from a standard primary in that attendees gather in a large room and stand with others who support their candidate while a headcount is taken to determine the winner. Porteshawver said that although the system might seem a bit outdated, it does make people feel more involved in the process.
"It's kind of archaic; you're going and you're actually counting heads," Porteshawver said. "It's fun to go there and it draws people ... to feel like they're actually being counted."
Initially, Porteshawver supported Congressman Dennis Kucinich. "He's really, really liberal and he's a really big idealist," she said.
However, because of the rules of the caucus, when Kucinich failed to get 15 percent of the vote, Porteshawver was forced to throw her support to another candidate. She chose Obama.
"I've been struggling to pick either Obama or [Senator Hillary] Clinton for ages," Porteshawver said. "[Obama] offers a new, fresh perspective, and while he doesn't have the experience that Hillary has, I feel like he's got the ideas."
Porteshawver said that the high proportion of young people was apparent in her precinct. "I saw a lot of young people in Obama's group," she said. "There were also a fair amount of young people in [Senator Joe] Biden's [D-Del.] group until he wasn't viable; then they came over to Obama. But to be fair, most of the people were with Obama."
Political Science Professor Kent Portney said in an e-mail to the Daily that college students contributed to the increased turnout.
"There are the usual explanations about voters being energized by the array of candidates, and this tells a good part of the story," Portney said. "But it [increased turnout] is also due to the fact that most college students were still home for the break, and could vote in person."
Portney also cautioned that the label "young voters" can be somewhat misleading, and warned against jumping to conclusions after only a few events. "It isn't really about 'young voters' - it's about college students," he said. "There is no evidence that non-college young people have increased their political engagement in the last 20 years ... We don't have a lot of hard evidence to support much of this - it takes time to develop such information. And remember, we have only had three delegate selection events."
The next votes on the path to November's election were cast in New Hampshire on Jan. 8, where surprise victories were awarded to Clinton and Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.). Cat Beck, a senior from Southern New Hampshire, was one student who voted for Clinton.
"I was pretty sure of my decision going into January," Beck said. "I voted for Hillary because I think she really has valuable experience in the political sector and that she can really do a great job bringing change to the country."
Freshman John Atsalis of Exeter, N.H. gave his support to Republican candidate Congressman Ron Paul [R-Tex.]. Atsalis said that although he disagreed with Paul on issues like Iraq, he felt that the candidate's views on strictly interpreting the constitution were compelling.
Atsalis' time spent in Washington D.C. as a page in the House of Representatives also gave him an appreciation for Paul's views on the role of government.
"[Congress] shouldn't be congratulating the Red Sox on winning the World Series - that's wasting our time," Atsalis said. "I came to respect [Paul] in that way."
Both Beck and Atsalis said that living in a state whose primary is held early has its perks and pitfalls. One benefit, they said, is that candidates can be seen in person.
"There were candidates [in New Hampshire] all throughout the summer," Atsalis said. "That's the thing - they're there all the time. Within the first week of coming back I saw [former Senator] John Edwards and Hillary Clinton ... Bill Clinton was at the polling place in my town."
The downside is that residents of New Hampshire were inundated with mail, ads,and calls from campaigns.
Beck said that she "definitely got a lot of calls, especially on Tuesday [the day of the primary]."
Atsalis agreed. "We got called probably three or four times a day ... [and] the commercials get really crazy at the end," he said. "You start seeing them more and then they're back-to-back."
Looking ahead in the race, Schildkraut said that candidates will have to make some important choices as more states approach their primaries.
"The next step for candidates still in the race is to figure out where to spend their time, money, and energy ... Anyone still in the race simply needs to have a major victory, Edwards and Romney especially," Schildkraut said. "For those who already have a victory, it is important to convert that success into fundraising and volunteer recruiting so that they have enough resources to campaign effectively in enough other states so that their one win turns into multiple wins."
Portney said that interesting things could be in store for Republicans if a clear frontrunner does not emerge.
"It is early in the delegate selection process, but my sense right now is that come June 1, none of the Republican candidates will have enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot of the convention," Portney said. "So between about June 1 and the start of the convention, there will be a lot of backroom negotiations taking place.
"For a political scientist, this is an exciting prospect because we haven't had a 'brokered convention' in a long, long time. Of course, it won't be a brokered convention, in the sense that the backroom deals will probably all be struck before the convention begins. But you never know what might happen."
Voters like Beck, on the other hand, are simply excited to see such a wide array of candidates up for election.
"This is a very exciting election year, especially on the Democratic side, and it's important that people go out and vote," Beck said.
