In 21st century science, we love to use advanced technology and complex models to predict what will happen in the future -- in other words, we like forecasting stuff. Perhaps the most common example of this is the daily weather. After considering a set of variables -- such as time of year, barometric pressure and past precipitation events -- meteorologists may forecast what the weather in a certain area will look like, usually with a fair amount of accuracy. Scientists are using models to forecast all types of other phenomena, from vegetation shifts due to climate change to the future range of the invasive cane toad in Australia. But as it turns out, forecasting is being used in other contexts, too, by people you may not suspect. In the Northeast birding world, the winter finch forecast is a well-known and highly anticipated piece of information released every fall. Basically, this one old guy evaluates the stock of cone crop -- an all-encompassing term describing the variations of cones produced by evergreen trees -- of the boreal forests in Canada, and based on that evaluation is able to predict which species of winter finches we might expect to see down south in New England. Winter finches breed in the boreal forests of northern Canada, and usually winter in central/southern Canada, feeding on the normally abundant selection of cones in these forests. However, occasionally there will be a year where the cone crop is low, meaning that their normal wintering grounds are devoid of the food they seek. As a response, the finches migrate further south until they reach forests containing sufficient foraging opportunities. These are the years when birders in New England can venture out to their nearest patch of spruce or pine, or even their backyard bird feeders, and rejoice in the spectacle of the uncommon winter finches snacking away. Such sought-after species in our area include the Bohemian waxwing, red crossbill, evening grosbeak and common redpoll, just to name a few. According to this year’s forecast, we should expect to see winter finches in our area due to the low cone crop in Ontario and northern Quebec. Areas with higher cone crop include Newfoundland and New England, which means, if you’re in the right place at the right time, you may be able to view these splendid birds. I was absolutely fascinated by the finch forecast when I first learned about it, and I’m always surprised how simple the equation is -- lower cone crop in Canada, more finches here, and vice versa. I suppose direct relationships like this that occur over and over become predictable, like expecting hurricanes in September, or a sudden increase in sad first-years three weeks into school when they all break up with their high school partners. While some of these forecasts are for fun, others have enormous implications. We must pay attention to these forecasts, especially those regarding climate change, because they offer us a chance to prevent damages instead of cleaning up afterwards.
Love,
Henry
The Weekly Chirp: Finch forecast
