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The Tufts Daily
Where you read it first | Thursday, April 25, 2024

Grading Boston's busy off-season

Red Sox pitchers and catchers reported to Fort Myers, Fla. for spring training last Friday, which means it's time to assess the team's active winter.

While I wasn't crazy about the splashy Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval signings, I'll readily admit that Boston's lineup is much better because of them. Third base was a black hole last year, with the Red Sox ranking third-to-last in the MLB in terms of offensive value at the position (as calculated by FanGraphs). A talented switch-hitter and smooth fielder for someone his size, Sandoval should fill the void nicely. Big belly aside, he's one of the better third baseman in the game and still in his prime at 28 years old. Based on last year's Wins Above Replacement (WAR) values, he represents a five-win upgrade over Will Middlebrooks -- the man he's replacing -- which makes Sandoval well worth his hefty $17.6 million salary.

Ramirez, formerly a shortstop and third baseman, will take his talents to left field -- another weak link in last year's club.Going by the same FanGraphs metric above, Boston ranked in the bottom 10 for total offensive value from its left fielders. Health issues notwithstanding, Ramirez has been the fourth-best hitter over the past two seasons per wRC+, which measures offensive performance after controlling for league and park effects. At 31 years old he's still near prime age and will, like Sandoval, benefit from Fenway Park's hitter-friendly confines. Hopefully his notorious attitude problems don't rival those of another Ramirez who played left field for the Red Sox not too long ago.

While costly, adding two middle-of-the-order bats was exactly what the doctor ordered. Boston had one of the five worst offenses in the American League last year in terms of runs, home runs, on-base plus slugging (OPS), and almost any other stat you want to toss out there. They were much too reliant on sluggers David Ortiz, now 39, and Mike Napoli, 33. Sandoval and Ramirez provide additional firepower to what could be the best lineup in baseball if Rusney Castillo, Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts all break out and veterans like Dustin Pedroia and Shane Victorino bounce back.

I'm decidedly less optimistic about the rotation, which has a much lower ceiling due to its lack of an ace. Clay Buchholz, the sole holdover from last year's Opening Day rotation, is the de facto number one even though he's really more of a mid-rotation guy. Rick Porcello's pretty good, but Wade Miley and Justin Masterson were both subpar last year. Joe Kelly throws hard, but hasn't been anything special as a starter and may be better suited for the bullpen. In fact, Porcello's the only current Red Sox who posted an ERA below 4.20 in 2014, which is troubling given that the average MLB starting pitcher had a 3.74 ERA last year. The best case scenario is that Masterson and Buchholz bounce back, Kelly improves and Miley makes a smooth transition to the American League. Otherwise, the rotation looks average at best. That's perfectly fine if Boston hits the tar out of the ball, as it did in 2013, but if the offense falls short then a lack of quality pitching will likely prevent them from reaching the postseason.

My only complaints are that the Red Sox failed to acquire an ace and still have way too many outfielders. They can always make trades later, but it would have been nice if they had taken care of these issues before spring training.  That said, I like how Ben Cherington re-tooled his roster and I am confident Boston will contend for a playoff berth in 2015. I give him a B+.