For years, experts have believed that the Republican Party would be unable to win elections in the future due to their messaging on immigration, which many perceived as racist. In 2002, Ruy Teixeira, co-author of “The Emerging Democratic Majority,” suggested that unless the Republicans softened their rhetoric on immigration, they would be doomed to a future of electoral losses in a new multiracial America; so too did the authors of the 2013 RNC autopsy, a report commissioned by the Republican National Committee after the GOP’s loss in 2012.
The 2024 election was the GOP’s reply. Not only did Trump win a plurality of the popular vote, he improved his performance among every major racial group except white voters despite being even more harsh on immigration in his campaign than ever before. The reason? Democrats failed to address one of the voters’ biggest concerns in the 2024 election by being unable to distinguish between legal and illegal immigration, as well as dismissing valid voter concerns about illegal immigration, instead calling such concerns racist.
While Republicans tend to refer to “illegal” immigration when they talk about stopping the flow of immigrants, Democrats talk about “immigration” point-blank. This rhetoric sometimes overlooks the legitimate concerns voters have about the unrestricted flow of illegal immigration at the southern border. It’s one thing to allow people to come into your country — it’s another to do so without vetting them, as in the case of illegal immigration. Not knowing who may be coming into your country can be dangerous. This is not to suggest that illegal immigrants are a wholesale threat; evidence commonly shows that undocumented immigrants are much less likely to be convicted of a crime than U.S.-born Americans. However, just because this demographic isn’t a threat now doesn’t mean that they won’t become one. America is a large country with a lot of enemies who would be more than willing to exploit the gaping hole in the south for their own nefarious purposes. This is what worries people, and if Democrats want to win an election, they have to take this concern seriously.
While Democrats have focused on the humanitarian aspects of immigration, some voters feel their concerns about security and economic competition aren’t being heard. Democrats often claim that the ‘immigrants take our jobs’ rhetoric is false. As they see it, immigration benefits the economy and creates jobs. While partially true, this misses a key point in the research into immigration and economic growth. The evidence in support of the claim that immigration contributes to economic growth is primarily correlated to skilled migration. There is no clear evidence to support the view that chain migration — the immigration of people who haven’t completed college — boosts the economy, and according to the Migration Policy Institute data from 2019, only 18% of illegal immigrants have a bachelor’s degree or higher. Americans who oppose illegal immigration, like JD Vance, claim that illegal immigrants depress wages as they are willing to work for less. Whether or not this is true, it is a concern which needs to be addressed instead of being dismissed simply as racism.
While there are probably a select few who oppose illegal immigration — or immigration, period — on the grounds of race, many people who oppose illegal immigration do so more on the grounds of cultural preservation. These are people who are used to a certain culture and a certain way of life, and they don’t want that to be changed without their approval. One doesn’t have to agree with this preservational point of view on immigration in order to understand the natural human instinct to protect what is familiar. To accuse such opponents of illegal immigration of being racist is to completely dismiss these voters.
Ultimately, the Democrats have a messaging problem. If they continue to ignore valid voter concerns about illegal immigration, they will stop looking like ‘the party of the people.’ To ensure that the next Trump isn’t elected, Democrats have to address the issues which got Donald Trump elected in the first place, combining voter concerns with liberal beliefs to assure voters about the party’s commitment to serving the people.
