About a week after various armed groups began to move against the Syrian government’s forces in Aleppo, the conflict is spiraling into a befuddling mess of frontlines, with some rebel groups now turning their attention towards one another.
It seems that the recent violence has been brought on by an “alignment of the stars” for the Islamist hardline rebel faction Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and its allies. Also relevant is that Syria’s allies appear weakened or distracted on many fronts, which has been taken advantage of by different actors. The reportedly U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, have attacked the now dismantled al-Assad regime in the east and have also taken parcels of land in the north. Various rebel groups and the Free Syrian Army have now taken Damascus, and the Syrian National Army and other Turkish proxies in the region have begun to attack SDF land in the northeast.
Though President-elect Donald Trump has proclaimed the need to get American troops out of Syria, with the resurgence of IS, who have recently claimed control over various chunks of land in both the Homs and Deir Ezzor desert, the ‘usefulness’ of an alliance with the SDF has increased greatly. So it’s time for the U.S. to reaffirm their commitment to the SDF and navigate the current crisis in a more hands-on manner.
This does not mean that the U.S. should goad the SDF into unnecessary offensive action that could endanger their future survival in the region. Rather, the U.S. must work to ensure two things: First, further attacks by the Syrian National Army and other Turkish-backed groups into SDF territory must be halted, and if this does not work, then handled with a heavier hand. Second, the HTS must be courted to foster cooperation between them and the Kurdish dominated SDF, as well as the other minorities which now find themselves under their direct governance.
The SNA has already overrun Kurdish positions around Tel Rifaat — an area north of Aleppo that Turkish media has painted as a possible “terrorist corridor” — and are now preparing to attack the city of Manbij and its surroundings. When it comes to dealing with this aggression, America should send their soldiers on symbolic patrols again, something done in 2022 by the Biden administration in response to Turkish airstrikes and a threat of invasion. If that doesn’t work, they should make a few symbolic fly-bys over SNA positions with American aviation.
When it comes to courting the HTS, the group, still designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S., has recently proclaimed their intention to respect ethnic and religious minorities in the areas now under their control. Mohammed al-Julani, the head of HTS, which is a former branch of al-Qaeda, has put out a deluge of public statements since his group’s offensive began, and has also made a shock statement declaring his group’s respect for the Kurds now under their control. Now of course, public statements like these ensure nothing. However, as the HTS is now in direct control of a substantial amount of the former regime’s territory, their need for recognition and an international backer grows as well. The U.S. could make a bid to fill this spot, and possibly adjust HTS governance to their liking.
American forces must now make a concentrated effort to ensure a favorable outcome to the conflict.
