Regardless of who wins today’s presidential election, the Democratic Party needs to do some serious soul-searching on their handling of this election cycle. Kamala Harris is the current vice president, a former California senator and a former prosecutor. Her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, is a race-baiting, idiotic and egotistical man who continuously spews conspiracy theories out of his mouth. Yet, the race is somehow tied, with Republicans predicted to sweep both chambers of Congress. How could this possibly be happening?
In the end, it all comes down to the demographics of the voters supporting both candidates. The Democratic coalition, encompassing racial minorities, working-class white people and youth voters, has largely lasted since former President Franklin Roosevelt formed the New Deal coalition to the present day. This bloc allowed former President Lyndon Johnson to dominate the 1964 election, winning modern-day red states like Kansas and Idaho easily. It was the same coalition that also allowed both former President Barack Obama and President Joe Biden to win the presidency in 2008 and 2020, respectively. However, this once-powerful coalition is now crumbling apart without redress.
Even compared to recent Democratic presidents, Harris is doing remarkably poorly among the demographics that brought Obama and Biden to victory. When it comes to minority voters, Obama won 95% of Black voters and 67% of Hispanic voters in 2008. Harris is currently polling at 81% and 52% respectively — a nearly 15-point drop among both minority groups. Trump’s Black support has increased from 9% to 15% since 2020, clawing at a pillar of support that Democrats have long depended on to win elections. Among young voters, particularly young men, Harris is doing equally as poorly. Polls regularly show Harris winning young women by 30% or more but barely leading among young men.
Harris is doing the worst among working-class voters, which used to be one of the strongest bases of support for the Democratic Party. In polling from August 2008, Obama was leading polling 45% to 43% against Republican former Senator John McCain for Americans without a college degree. In contrast, recent polls found Harris down by at least 12 points, a 10-point drop compared to Obama. In September, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which has endorsed every Democratic presidential candidate since the 1990s, refused to back Harris. The Teamsters Union, which boasts some 1.3 million members, conducted its own polling and found that support for Harris is lagging by huge margins. Before Biden dropped out, union members supported him over Trump by eight points. However, when union members compared Harris to Trump, she lost by over 25 points. The Teamsters are also not the only union refusing to endorse Harris. At the start of October, the International Association of Fire Fighters, which has 300,000 members, also decided to sit this election out.
It is clear that the Democrats’ strategy is failing. Yet, Harris is plowing full speed ahead, seemingly oblivious to it all. Peek at a liberal messaging board like the comment section under The New York Times and you’ll find it awash with finger-pointing and anger directed at so-called “right-wing pundits,” biased news sources and self-centered voters. When talking about Trump himself, all semblance of civility goes out the window, with labels flying all over the place. Democrats have deemed Trump a fascist, a danger to democracy and compared him to Hitler.
Guess what? Nearly half of Americans are likely going to vote for Trump. This is not because a majority of them would like to live in Nazi Germany or Mussolini’s Italy. They are choosing Trump anyway because he understands their grievances and the hypocrisies of the Democrats. When Americans watched Harris get coronated as the new nominee within days after Biden was pushed out of the race, that doesn’t scream a shining beacon of democracy. When Harris announces herself as a change candidate, but then states that she doesn’t know a thing she would change about Biden’s policies in an interview, how can she possibly pretend she has a coherent position?
Some non-white voters are tired of the Democratic Party’s focus on continuously hammering racial differences without delivering on bread-and-butter issues. When members of the working class are continuously lectured about their white male privilege, they will simply stop supporting the Democratic Party. Young men are also no longer content being ignored by the Democratic Party. Most of Harris’s appeal to the youth has been aimed at young women, which explains why she does so poorly among young men. The Democratic coalition is collapsing, but it is not too late to pull out the flex tape. The party must redirect its attention back to working-class Americans and deliver on everyday economic issues instead of bickering over empty talking points. The New Deal coalition is not yet lost as long as Democrats are willing to fight for the hearts and minds of Americans, and they could return to the electoral dominance they once enjoyed.
