Pennsylvania
By Michael Onysko
Pennsylvania’s history of switching between political parties makes it a critical state this year. President Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by less than 1.2%. Polling indicates that this state is even, leaning neither red nor blue. An average of Pennsylvania polling data showed a 0.2% lead in favor of former President Donald Trump, with statistics showing 47.9% for Trump and 47.7% for Vice President Kamala Harris as of yesterday. Geographically, approximately two-thirds of voters in large cities support Harris, and two-thirds of rural voters support Trump. However, suburban areas in Pennsylvania continue to be a close battle, with 49% of voters supporting Harris and 47% supporting Trump. Projections indicate that election results for Pennsylvania will take longer than election night since election workers are not allowed to process mail ballots until Election Day.
North Carolina
By Josh Solomon
While North Carolina is a battleground state, it has only turned blue once since 1980, in the 2008 election. Trump narrowly took the state in 2020 by 1.3%, his smallest win in any state, and may have a slight edge over Harris in the upcoming election. A large Democratic turnout in Raleigh, Asheville and Charlotte is necessary for Harris to contend the state this election; however, her ability to cut into red areas that surround dense blue cities may be the deciding factor. While Hurricane Helene has devastated much of the western part of the state, it has seen the highest early voting turnout in the country, with 43% of eligible voters having voted by Oct. 30. The state will inevitably be a tight race, with its 16 electoral votes likely to be decided on election night.
Wisconsin
By Eli Brigham
Wisconsin, a traditionally “blue wall” state, has emerged as a swing state after Trump’s upset win in 2016 and Biden’s narrow win in 2020. Currently, the state is a pure tossup. The FiveThirtyEight polling average has Harris leading by 1.1%, and the RealClearPolitics polling average has Harris up by 0.4%. For Harris, victory lies in turning out the Democratic cities of Madison and Milwaukee, along with improving numbers with college-educated white voters. For Trump, maintaining strong appeal in the rural areas of the state coupled with slight improvements in urban areas could lead to a win. Voter participation in Wisconsin is expected to be high — in 2020, 84% of voters turned out. This combination of razor-thin margins and high turnout indicates Wisconsin is likely to be called either late on Election Day or early morning on Wednesday.
Michigan
By Shayna Levy
Recent polling in the battleground state of Michigan from Marist College and FiveThirtyEight puts Harris 3% and 1% ahead of Trump, respectively. Despite Democrats’ trifecta in the State House, State Senate and governorship, Michigan has been considered a tossup state since 2016 when Trump narrowly defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the state — Biden successfully flipped the state back to the blue column in 2020. Harris’ path to a Michigan victory includes Arab Americans, a demographic she has struggled to connect with this election over the war in Gaza. Michigan is the birthplace of the “Uncommitted Movement,” whose demands include an immediate ceasefire and an arms embargo to Israel. Members of the movement threaten to withhold their votes for Harris if she does not pledge to work towards their demands, which could be costly for her in Michigan. Recent measures passed in Michigan that allow mail-in ballots to be processed before Election Day and increased early voting means results will likely be called the day after the election.
Arizona
By Julian Glickman
Democrats have chipped away at Republican control of Arizona since the early 2000s. In 2020, by only 0.3%, Biden became the first Democrat to win the state since former President Bill Clinton in 1996. In 2022, Democrats largely swept statewide elections, winning races for senate, governor, attorney general and secretary of state. Trump maintains a slight lead, though most polls remain within the margin of error. He currently leads by 3% in The New York Times’ polling average. The growing political diversity of Arizona’s largest county, Maricopa County, which narrowly went blue in 2020, has made the statewide race more competitive. Latines are expected to be a key demographic with 1.3 million eligible voters, making up roughly 25% of the state’s electorate. Abortion access will be on the ballot and could potentially galvanize turnout for Harris. Arizona’s results are expected to take days due to lengthy ballots, a high number of mail-in ballots and new rules regarding their processing.
Georgia
By Hannah Rajalingam
Despite being a traditionally red state, Georgia swung blue for the 2020 presidential election for the first time in thirty years. Currently, Trump is beating Harris by a slim margin with their numbers at 48.6% and 47%, respectively, as of Friday. Key voting groups in Georgia include suburban/rural, young and Black voters. Suburban women in Georgia have begun leaving the Republican party after the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Black male voters tend to have strong leanings toward the Democratic party; however, the Harris campaign still needs to win over voters in suburban and rural Georgia to turn the state blue this year. Election results are expected to be released and certified by Nov. 12 at 5 p.m.
Nevada
By Varya Karpinskaya
With just six electoral votes, the Silver State holds an important role in this election. In Nevada, which went blue in the last four presidential elections, voter registration is nearly evenly split, with a significant number of voters registered as “nonpartisan.” The state still hasn’t fully recovered from the pandemic-caused drop in the economy, and with an economy heavily reliant on the leisure and hospitality industry, Nevada’s unemployment rate is at a high 5.4%. One measure proposed by Trump on this issue is a “no tax on tips” policy, which Harris’s campaign has also endorsed. While some polls predict a roughly even split between Trump and Harris, others indicate a slight edge, from one to six percentage points depending on the poll and date, in Trump’s favor. Initial election results are expected on Election Day.
