Thirty-four Senate seats are up for grabs today. Democrats currently hold a slim majority in the Senate, where they sit in seven of the nine most competitive seats. Democrats must win seven of these seats and the presidency in order to achieve a majority.
TOSSUPS:
Michigan
By Zach Halverstam
Debbie Stabenow, the 74-year-old senior Senator from Michigan, announced that she would not run for reelection early last year, leaving the seat she has held for decades open in a critical swing state. Unsurprisingly, the race between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) has been competitive, with polls giving only a slight edge to Slotkin. Perhaps appealing to Michigan’s partisan divisions, both candidates have historically taken moderate policy positions. However, it does not seem this strategy is tenable for either candidate. Slotkin has condemned progressive Democrats like Michigan congresswoman Rashida Tlaib for calls to end military aid to Israel, which may alienate the sizable Arab population in the Detroit area. Meanwhile, Rogers, who has publicly condemned Donald Trump as recently as 2021, has reversed his criticism of the former president after gaining his endorsement, which Slotkin has publicly attacked him for. It is an open question of which candidate’s decision to side with a certain faction of their party will cost them the election.
Ohio
By Maxwell Shoustal
Sherrod Brown has served as a Senator from Ohio since 2007 and is a rarity as a statewide elected Democratic official in the state of Ohio. Although Ohio was once a swing state, it has become solidly Republican in recent years. Bernie Moreno was born in Bogotá, Colombia and was involved in the car dealership business prior to his political career. While Moreno can capitalize on the popularity of Donald Trump in Ohio, Brown will have to rely on ticket-splitting voters to win his Senate race. Brown hopes to court these voters through his reputation as an economic populist who supports the interests of working class people. Polls on the race are mixed, and the margin of victory will likely be extremely thin regardless of who wins.
Pennsylvania
By Julieta Grané
Until recently, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey held a steady lead over Republican challenger David McCormick. However, in the final stretch leading up to the election, this Pennsylvania Senate seat has become a toss-up. Casey is a lawyer and politician who has served as a Pennsylvania Senator since 2007, and McCormick is a businessman who has put more than $4 million of his own money into his campaign throughout the race. In an effort to appeal to undecided voters, Sen. Casey aired a campaign ad in October that promoted instances where he sided with Trump. McCormick threatens the Democrats’ narrow 51–49 majority.
Wisconsin
By Nate Hall
Popular Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin is running for a third term against Republican Eric Hovde, a businessman who previously ran for Senate in 2012. This is a must-win seat for Democrats as they seek to retain their majority, and polls show that Baldwin has the advantage here. Although Wisconsin is a swing state at the federal level, no Republican has won this Senate seat since 1952. However, Hovde has improved in the polls in recent weeks, suggesting that this may be Baldwin’s closest Senate race yet.
LEAN REPUBLICAN:
Montana
By Nicholas Prather
Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester, the senior U.S. Senator from Montana since 2007, is facing an uphill battle against Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL from Minnesota who moved to Montana after founding a wildfire management company and headquartering it within the state. Tester has prided himself on his connections to the state as a third-generation Montana farmer and school teacher, but he may be unable to overcome conservative headwinds, as he is the only remaining Democrat who holds statewide office in Montana. The race has been defined by the candidates’ connection to the state, with Tester criticizing Sheehy as an out-of-stater who doesn’t understand Montana values. This reflects a larger cultural divide within Montana, as an influx of new residents have created tension with those initially born there. Sheehy is currently leading in most polls by about a seven point margin, and is generally expected to win, but the race remains competitive. Republican leaders see flipping this seat as crucial to regaining Senate control.
Nebraska
By Estelle Anderson
Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer, a Republican who has served for two terms, is in a contentious race against Dan Osborn, a former union leader and U.S. Navy veteran who is running as an independent. The Senate race in Nebraska has become one of the closest in the country, with a recent New York Times/Siena College Poll showing Fischer at 48% and Osborn trailing just two points behind. Since Osborn has not said which party he will caucus with on Capitol Hill, his victory would not automatically grant the seat to Democrats, but would still represent a critical loss for Republicans.
Texas
By Zach Halverstam
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, famed for his 2016 presidential run and criticism by liberal media, faces a tight campaign for reelection against Democratic Rep. Colin Allred. Cruz has faced an image problem in recent years, which worsened in his last term. Most notably, he faced backlash from a highly publicized scandal in 2021 centering on his decision to leave Houston for Cancún during a massive statewide power crisis. Cruz narrowly edged out Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke in his 2018 reelection campaign, winning by just 2.6 points. With Texas’ population becoming more Democratic amid a nationwide migration to the Sun Belt, many experts believe Cruz’s chances of a third term are in jeopardy. Cruz’s opponent, Rep. Colin Allred of Texas’ 32nd district (which covers much of downtown Houston), seeks to exploit this vulnerability and become the first Black Senator in state history. However, Texas is still firmly a conservative bastion, and Cruz has taken a narrow polling lead. Nevertheless, if Allred is able to seal a victory against a weak Cruz, it could mark the beginning of the end of Republican political dominance in Texas.
LEAN DEMOCRATIC:
Arizona
By Nate Hall
Incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat in 2018, left the Democratic Party in 2022 and announced her retirement from the Senate earlier this year. Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who currently represents most of Phonenix in Arizona’s 3rd district, is facing off against Republican Kari Lake, a former news anchor and Trump loyalist who narrowly lost the governor’s race in 2022. The race to replace her is one of the tightest in the country — Representative Gallego has the advantage here, as he has consistently held a large fundraising advantage and currently leads by several points in the polls, but Arizona’s swing state status means that the race is likely to be very close.
Nevada
By Estelle Anderson
Incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen, a Democrat elected in 2018, is facing a strong challenge from Republican Sam Brown, a retired Army captain and political newcomer who has gained traction with Nevada’s conservative base. Both candidates are targeting key constituencies in the state, including Latine voters and union workers. Although Sen. Rosen has a fundraising edge and leads in most polls, Nevada’s status as a battleground state means this race could come down to the wire.
