The Round-off Roundup: Olympic team predictions

For my last column, I’m going to make the obligatory predictions for the U.S. women’s gymnastics Olympic team later this summer.

This year, there will be five spots on the team and no individuals for the U.S. The highest-scoring all-around athlete from the combined two days of the Olympic trials automatically qualifies for the Olympic team. The remaining four athletes are chosen by the Athlete Selection Committee.

Simone Biles is locked in for the first spot on the team unless something catastrophic happens. Shilese Jones also seems extremely likely to get the second spot on the team, as the United States’ second-best gymnast in the all-around. The question marks are the remaining three spots. The U.S. needs a third gymnast who is strong in the all-around. The team also needs gymnasts for the traditional bars/beam slot and the floor/vault spot.

Leanne Wong and Kayla DiCello are strong contenders for the third AA spot. Both college gymnasts for Florida, these two athletes are great but not the best on all of the events. Wong was an alternate for the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo. Her time in the NCAA has only made her more consistent. She was also on the 2023 Worlds team. The biggest downside is that she is not top three on any individual event. However, as we saw in Tokyo, having strong backups is critical to team success. DiCello was likewise an alternate in 2020 and was on the 2023 Worlds Team, too. She made a strong statement at the 2024 Winter Cup a few months ago, winning the all-around competition. Unfortunately, it’s either DiCello or Wong — it doesn’t make sense to take both. Between the two, I’d pick Wong, just for her demonstrated consistency and ability to compete under pressure. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see DiCello in the spot, either.

The next spot is the uneven bars/beam position. My two top choices are Sunisa Lee and Gabby Douglas. Lee is the reigning Olympic all-around champion and has been showing some of the most difficult bar work in the world. The biggest question is her health — Lee has struggled with kidney issues that have greatly affected her training since the last Olympics. Also, she has yet to demonstrate readiness in a competition. She struggled at the Winter Cup and was not given any international assignments this year. She might be too big of a risk to bring on the team. Similarly, Gabby Douglas was the 2012 Olympic all-around champion and a two-time Olympian. She has also been showing extremely difficult routines in training. However, although she resumed training a year and a half ago, Douglas has yet to compete this year (she had to withdraw from the Winter Cup due to testing positive for COVID-19). This means that she has not competed in the past eight years! Douglas is on the roster for the American Classic this Saturday, and her performance there could make or break her chances of being on the team. She has hinted that she is planning to debut an extremely difficult Cheng vault this weekend (which would actually put her in contention for the all-around spot, rather than the bars/beam spot).

Lastly, the floor/vault spot. Right now, my top pick for this spot (again, depending on future performance) is Jade Carey. Carey is likely the strongest U.S. vaulter after Biles, as she competes both the Cheng and Amanar vaults. She’s the reigning Olympic floor champion and the 2022 World vault champion and has been improving her consistency in the NCAA. The downside is that she has been struggling with a shoulder injury over the past year, and it’s unclear if she’ll be able to return to her previous difficulty. If she can’t, the spot could easily go to Joscelyn Roberson or Jordan Chiles.

Predictions (in order of confidence):