We are roughly a third of the way through the NFL season, and narratives are beginning to take hold of teams. Contenders are separating from pretenders, and jobs are being won … or lost.
By week 10 of last season, two coaches had already been fired and three more would be on the way out by the end of the season. Now, this season’s most vulnerable coaches are beginning to face the pressure to either perform or be ousted. With that in mind, let’s look at who is most vulnerable, and who may be showing up in headlines in the coming weeks.
Not Going Anywhere
Despite some struggles, Bill Belichick, Sean Payton, Matt LaFleur, Sean McDermott, Zac Taylor and Brian Daboll are all safe for the foreseeable future. Belichick’s historic success has probably granted him years of coaching immunity and Sean Payton was too much of an investment for the Denver Broncos to give up on without waiting at least a few seasons. The rest have shown what they can do with a good roster, so coaching clearly isn’t the issue with these teams.
You’re Safe… For Now
Ron Rivera and Kevin O’Connell are on thin ice but could turn things around. These guys fit in an awkward category: They meet sub-par expectations with sub-par rosters.
On the whole, the Washington Commanders probably need a full reset to get back to a competitive level, but Rivera is a highly respected figure and the newest ownership in the league would be hard-pressed to let him go this soon into their tenure.
For O’Connell, the Minnesota Vikings’ success last season gives him enough leeway to hold on to the job through a little bit of turmoil, but if he continues to underperform or loses key assets — like receiver Justin Jefferson — to trade, he may be on the way out.
How Are You Still Employed?
Josh McDaniels and Brandon Staley are on their very last legs.
Josh McDaniels entered his second head coaching job with the Raiders last season. His first stint with the Broncos turned his name into a dirty word in Denver, and his stint with the Raiders may be worse. After going 6–11 in his starting season, McDaniels’ seat was already getting warm, but this season, and this week in particular, has made it even hotter. McDaniels coached the Raiders to a 30–12 loss against a Chicago Bears team that fielded rookie Division II quarterback Tyson Bagent in his first ever start and made several obvious blunders along the way. It is rumored that the Raiders don’t have enough money to issue a contract to a new coach, and this might genuinely be the only thing keeping McDaniels in town.
For Brandon Staley, he has coached an extremely talented Los Angeles Chargers roster to consistent underperformance for his entire tenure with the team. Sitting at 2–4, Staley hasn’t just lost games but players as well. Most notably, star running back Austin Ekeler has expressed direct doubt in Staley. Unless he turns this season around dramatically, Brandon Staley will not coach in Los Angeles in 2024.
