My preseason World Series prediction — Atlanta Braves over Houston Astros — sounded great way back in March, and with both teams having first round byes in the playoffs, it looked pretty good in October, too. But baseball isn’t that easy. The 2023 World Series will instead feature the Texas Rangers and the Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s the first time since 1991 that two teams with losing records the year prior have met in the World Series. Here’s the tale of the tape between these two clubs, and my almost certainly inaccurate prediction for the series.
The Rangers lost 102 games in 2021 and 94 last year, but they managed to far exceed expectations this season. Corey Seager raked after a disappointing 2022 and Marcus Semien was his usual self, but Texas also got surprise breakout seasons from Adolis García and Jonah Heim at the plate. Rookies Josh Jung and Evan Carter, a September call-up, also impressed. It all added up to the third-best offense in baseball, averaging 5.44 runs per game. Offseason recruit Nathan Eovaldi was terrific on the mound, while deadline acquisitions Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery helped to further shore up the pitching staff.
After letting the AL West division title slip away to the Astros, the Rangers drew the 99-win Rays in the wild card round, who they would proceed to outscore 11–1 in two games in an easy sweep. They kept right on rolling through the 101-win Orioles, sweeping them and waltzing into an ALCS matchup with those very same Astros, who they would beat in seven games.
The Diamondbacks, for their part, lost 110 games in 2021 and 88 last year, so you could say they weren’t exactly among the preseason favorites for the National League pennant. Two offseason moves stand out in hindsight — trading Daulton Varsho to Toronto for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno and extending Corbin Carroll. While Varsho hasn’t been bad in Toronto, Gurriel and Moreno have both been solid at the plate, and Moreno is a near lock to win the NL Gold Glove at catcher. For Carroll’s part, he had just 115 big league plate appearances when Arizona offered him an eight-year, $111 million extension. With Carroll being a shoo-in for NL Rookie of the Year, that deal looks like a genius move now.
Even still, it seemed the Diamondbacks, who barely snuck into the playoffs and had a -15 run differential, were a year early. That didn’t stop them from sweeping the Brewers in the wild card round and the heavyweight Dodgers in the division series, setting up an NLCS matchup with the Phillies. After going down 3–2 in the series, they would win games six and seven on the road to punch their ticket to the World Series.
So who wins? The Rangers are the better team on paper in just about every way, and they’ll have the home field advantage. But if I’ve learned anything from these playoffs, it’s that I should ignore every instinct I have when it comes to picking baseball games. This postseason has defied all logic, and my gut has betrayed me too many times. Diamondbacks in seven.
