It’s the end of Oscars season, meaning it’s time to predict which pretentious movies from 2021 that few people watched will win the coveted awards. The official nominations are scheduled to be announced on Feb. 8, but here’s a list of what to look for in the big five categories: picture, director, screenplay, actor and actress.
Best Picture
“Belfast," “CODA," “Drive My Car," “Dune," “King Richard," “Licorice Pizza," “The Lost Daughter," “The Power of The Dog," “The Tragedy of Macbeth" and “West Side Story." The three-hour Japanese Cannes darling “Drive My Car” has been gaining traction as it accumulates “best film” accolades from various critics groups that have almost certainly guaranteed it a spot in the Best Picture ten. Adam McKay’s star-studded climate change allegory “Don’t Look Up” (2021) is also a potential nominee but has proven to be controversial among audiences and critics alike. “Being The Ricardos” (2021) stands a chance at a nomination but has received fairly average reviews compared to other likely nominees. “The Lost Daughter” would likely be the first to go among the films listed, though it highlights a brilliant directorial debut from Maggie Gyllenhaal and standout performance from Olivia Colman. There’s talk of a “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (2021) nomination here, but that’s a reach at best.
Best Director
Steven Spielberg ("West Side Story"), Jane Campion ("The Power of The Dog"), Denis Villeneuve ("Dune"), Paul Thomas Anderson ("Licorice Pizza") and Kenneth Branagh ("Belfast"). It seems likely that this award will go to either Spielberg or Campion, but Branagh stands a chance if “Belfast” outperforms in other categories. Villeneuve will be recognized for the massive scale of sci-fi epic “Dune,” and Anderson's film “Licorice Pizza” has done well with critics. All five directors seem fairly secure in their nominations, but it’s possible Ryusuke Hamaguchi ("Drive My Car") or Joel Coen ("The Tragedy of Macbeth") could sneak in there.
Best Original Screenplay
“Belfast,” “Licorice Pizza,” “C’mon C’mon," “Don’t Look Up” and “Being The Ricardos.”Mike Mills’ intimate and endearing “C’mon C’mon” deserves all the nominations in the world and has received a few already this awards season. Given its previous nominations in the Original Screenplay category this awards season, the hope is that it will carry this section at the Oscars as well. The Academy is also sure to nominate their darling Aaron Sorkin for his mediocre Lucille Ball biopic “Being The Ricardos."
Best Adapted Screenplay
“The Power of The Dog,” “The Lost Daughter,” “West Side Story,” “Drive My Car” and “CODA.” “The Lost Daughter” stands its best chance in this category as the filmic adaptation of the Elena Ferrante novel of the same name. “Dune” also stands a chance at a nomination here for the sheer complexity of the books on which it was based, but the film has much more significant achievements than its screenplay, like its cinematography and production quality. The same goes for “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” though it was a bit too literal to be deserving of a nomination here.
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch ("The Power of The Dog"), Andrew Garfield ("Tick, Tick… Boom!"), Will Smith ("King Richard"), Denzel Washington ("The Tragedy of Macbeth") and Peter Dinklage ("Cyrano"). The trifecta of Cumberbatch, Garfield and Smith are the three most solid nominations and the trophy will likely go to one of them. The other two slots would most likely be filled by any combination of Washington, Dinklage, Leonardo DiCaprio ("Don’t Look Up"), Joaquin Phoenix ("C’mon C’mon") or Nicolas Cage ("Pig").
Best Actress
Nicole Kidman ("Being The Ricardos"), Olivia Colman ("The Lost Daughter"), Kristen Stewart ("Spencer"), Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes of Tammy Faye") and Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers). Given the generally good press around her film, Lady Gaga might score a nomination for “House of Gucci,” and, if so, would likely take the spot of Cruz or Stewart. Despite being the most honored actress of the year, recognized by over 25 critics groups for her turn as Princess Diana, Kristen Stewart missed a crucial Screen Actors Guild Awards nomination that has historically been a good predictor for the Oscars.
Though the Oscars don't take place until March and nominations have yet to be announced, we can be nearly certain that this year — like years — will be embroiled with controversy around everything from the privilege inherent in the awards to the lack of diversity of its nominees. But with the wealth of strong possible nominees to choose from, it will certainly be a competitive awards ceremony this coming March.
