Let me make one thing clear: Rookie quarterbacks are not treated fairly in the world of sports criticism.
Rookies at most other positions face a completely different set of expectations and reactions throughout their first rodeos. Take 2020's No. 4 overall pick, Andrew Thomas, who led the league in sacks allowed from left tackle last season, for example. His poor play has largely been ignored because he’s — well — a left tackle.
QBs, on the other hand, are mercilessly ripped apart by fan bases and pundits because they are both the easiest to blame for a team’s on-field ineptitude and simultaneously the easiest to analyze by statisticians because of how much they touch the ball. Rookie QBs are often given an out from their struggles in the form of referencing their situation and surrounding talent. Granted, an NFL team is made up of 22 starters and 53-man rosters, not just one man.
As for the three players who have started all three games this season, we have No. 1 pick and Jacksonville Jaguars starter Trevor Lawrence, No. 2 pick and New York Jets starter Zach Wilson and No. 15 pick and New England Patriots starter Mac Jones to look at. I will buy the argument that Jones' struggles are mostly not his fault, but as for Wilson and Lawrence, the data says something else.
These young play callers have netted one win across nine collective games through Sunday. And while Jones and the Patriots seem to have some level of football competency, both Lawrence and Wilson are on teams that look completely and utterly over matched.
The Jaguars boast respectable offensive talent, but possess a defense that couldn’t stop a penny from falling through a subway grate. Wilson and the Jets seem devoid of much talent on either side of the ball and apart from a few contributors, this team looks totally lost throughout all three games.
But the struggles of Wilson and Lawrence go beyond the obvious. Yes, Lawrence and Wilson lead the league in turnovers with seven apiece. Yes, they are a combined 0–6 to start their careers. Those stats can be dismissed by the situation, but once we look closer, it gets harder to defend the top two picks.
Wilson and Lawrence rank second and third to last, respectively, in total quarterback rating, a metric developed by ESPN that adjusts a QB’s rating based on the strength of the opponent and evaluates a QB at a play-by-play level, among passers that have played all three games. Furthermore, Wilson and Lawrence held the same spots in defense-adjusted value over average, a stat cooked up by sports analytics group Football Outsiders that compares each individual player to the average of the entire league in a similar situation play by play.
Both metrics have their drawbacks, but they do a good job of eliminating matchup or situational excuses from a quarterback’s performance, good or bad. In the cases of Lawrence and Wilson, it’s been bad.
I’m not here to call either player a verified bust just yet. The two are undeniably talented and have flashed some of the skills that made them the top two selections last April. But talent doesn’t always transfer to NFL success, and neither man has shown that they were worthy of the spots they achieved— at least not yet.
