2020 Vision: Calm before the storm

After the New Hampshire primary, the Democratic primary election is approaching a significant tipping point in Nevada, South Carolina and on Super Tuesday. After these contests, the race will likely have a distinct frontrunner, and some candidates may drop out if they fare too poorly.

Currently, there is no clear frontrunner in the race. Senator Bernie Sanders and former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg both carry momentum from strong performances in Iowa and New Hampshire but face significant challenges in upcoming states.

In Nevada, Sanders leads the field according to polls, with Biden coming in second. According to Real Clear Politics’ analysis of several polls, Sanders leads Biden by an average of 14 points, 30% to Biden's 16%, followed by Warren, Buttigieg, Steyer and Klobuchar. However, Nevada is known for being difficult to poll accurately because of its recent switch to the caucus system, leaving more uncertainty in the predicted results than in previous states. Logistical uncertainty also lingers in Nevada as the Democratic establishment works to engineer a substitute to the caucus reporting app that was meant to be used in the state but failed badly in Iowa. Biden still leads Sanders in South Carolina with 28% support to Sanders’ 20%, but his lead has dropped 9% since before the Iowa caucuses. African American voters are a critical demographic in the state and a central part of Biden’s plan to win it. He enjoys 36% support among African American voters generally. Age is a factor in African American support in the state however — with those under the age of 54 Sanders has an edge with 29%, followed by Biden at 26%, Steyer at 23%, Warren at 10% and Buttigieg at 3%. If Biden fails to leave South Carolina victorious his campaign will teeter on the edge of viability —  an unexpected position for the long-predicted frontrunner.

After Nevada and South Carolina, the next contest is Super Tuesday. On March 3, 14 states, as well as Democrats living abroad, will cast their Democratic primary ballots, and allocate 1,357 of the 3,979 total pledged delegates in the race. California and Texas are the most significant states in terms of delegates, with 415 and 228 respectively. The outcomes of the Nevada and South Carolina contests will surely have an effect on candidates’ chances in the Super Tuesday states, so I will refrain from speculation as to the outcomes on March 3 until the proceeding states vote, but one thing is certain: the Democratic primary field will look different after the first week of March. Super Tuesday will make and break some campaigns: If candidates do not win big enough to have a mathematically viable shot at the nomination, they will likely drop out. All we can do now is sit and wait.