It’s a good thing the Obama Doctrine can only fall so short before January 20, 2017. But just under a year gives the President plenty of time for more mistakes. In Syria, ISIS consolidates power as Russia beefs up its military presence and regional influence. Not long ago, the Obama administration pursued negotiations with an erratic and mercurial North Korean regime over its nuclear arsenal. In light of the President’s trouble in foreign affairs, I’ll suggest some guidelines for what a successful — or even coherent — foreign policy strategy looks like.
A starting point for any foreign policy is understanding and operating within an inconvenient and challenging reality. Niccolo Machiavelli wrote in "The Prince" of accepting the “effectual truth”: the world as it is, not as one wills it. Foreign policy is not made in a vacuum; a strong and successful foreign policy cannot operate on wishful thinking. It must see lurking danger, risk and opportunity. Nor can it be grounded in the thought that the world is a charming fixer-upper. President Obama missed the mark in Iraq because he failed to account for the power vacuums the withdrawal created. In justifying scaling down the American presence there, he saw what he wanted to see: a comfortable, convenient exit strategy.
This shrewdness of understanding is not limited to a country’s worldview, but also extends to its assessment of its strengths and weaknesses. A good American president knows he or she commands the most formidable fighting force in history, but cannot send it everywhere. This president knows there can be no military action without a set of clear, quantifiable and realistic objectives, recognizing that military action requires long-term commitments, often to the chagrin of a less-than-informed public.
To that end, an effective foreign policy-maker is fully aware of all of his or her capabilities. A true statesman separates and distinguishes different tools at his/her disposal before he/she strategizes and acts. A deft strategist knows that hard military power is not necessarily first resort. Soft, economic and cultural power is especially effective in the digital age. The Internet allows for the spread of ideas, GIFs and cultural appeal. A model administration won’t speak pugnaciously about “getting rid of ISIS” by “[taking] their oil.” Its policies — and the rhetoric it employs — are nuanced and thoughtful.
The most skilled foreign policymakers see the whole board, cognizant of the law of physics that for every action, there is an equal or opposite reaction. They account for the vested interests of every actor. Most relevant to Mr. Obama, when they want to shift the geo-political focus of their strategy eastward, they pivot in theory, but not in public.
Perhaps most uncomfortably, a good leader honors his/her threats. Harsh as it may sound, force should not always be plan A. But it is often necessary and most effective. It cannot, however, be used to accomplish strategic goals if a country’s threats hold no weight. When a dictator is poised to use gas against dissidents and opposition, that is not the time for red lines to look vague, to fade or to recede. A statesman must act when redlines are crossed, lest credible threats of force become useless. Without this, foreign policy can only accomplish so many strategic objectives. At the same time, however, a wise administration adheres to past commitments. It respects allies and treats them as such, knowing full well it may need their help in projecting power on a regional level or simply to get things done. Put another way, it avoids alienating powerful actors when possible. Besides, a leader is only as good as his/her word, useless if not trusted by friends.
Unfortunately, I cannot even begin to exhaustively explore my issues with the faulty Obama doctrine. For America’s sake and for that of his legacy, here is hoping the president develops a cohesive foreign policy for the end of his term. Merely rethinking his current agenda would be a start.
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