Starting pitcher sleepers and busts

The Brewers’ Mike Fiers leads off my list of starting pitcher sleepers for the 2015 season. He had a tremendous minor league career and a solid rookie season in 2012 before he imploded in 2013. Last season, the Brewers’ No. 4 starter was lights out at both the triple-A and major league levels. I am willing to bet that 2013 was the outlier and that Fiers is destined for a monster season. He is a strikeout machine (career K/9 is 9.17) and certainly has the highest ceiling of any Milwaukee starting pitcher.

While Mat Latos is already a household name, ESPN has him ranked as its 38th starter for the upcoming season. I believe he is being criminally undervalued after putting together his fifth straight season with a sub-3.50 ERA and sub-1.21 WHIP. Latos will be pitching in Miami this season, which is much friendlier to pitchers than his previous home in Cincinnati. Health is a minor concern, but if Latos manages to avoid the DL this year, 180-190 strikeouts seems likely.

Over the AL, I really like Seattle’s James Paxton. He was formerly a top prospect, but he has been mediocre throughout his triple-A career. Paxton, however, has excelled whenever he has been given the opportunity for the Mariners. In 98 career innings pitched, he has a 2.66 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.The only downside is an average K-rate (7.35), but he has proven to be an effective groundball pitcher with a mid-90s fastball. ESPN has him as their 126th best starter, but he's a top-75 guy in my opinion.

In terms of busts, Julio Teheran is ranked as ESPN’s 15th best starter, but with guys like Gio Gonzalez, Tyson Ross and Michael Wacha listed after him, there is no way I am drafting Teheran at his average draft position (ADP).Last year, he had a 2.89 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but his fielder independent pitching (FIP) and his left on base percentage (LOB%) show that his success has been due to a considerable amount of luck.His 2013 statistics lead to the same conclusion: Teheran’s good, but his not great K-rate (7.72) will also make me steer clear of him in the early rounds.

Matt Harvey is probably the scariest pitcher in the draft. He has not thrown a pitch in a regular season game since 2013, but is being ranked 21st on ESPN.Pitchers have proven to be anything but a sure thing following their Tommy John surgeries. Adam Wainwright is a perfect example; after going under the knife in 2011, he was a far less effective pitcher in 2012, before rebounding in 2013. Harvey had elite stuff before the surgery, but we have also seen several pitchers, such as Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlen and Jarrod Parker need a second Tommy John surgery after they begin pitching again. Harvey is not worth the massive risk in such an early round. I see Alex Wood as a better option a round after Harvey goes.

Finally, aside from Jered Weaver, I will be avoiding the Angels’ entire rotation. Garrett Richards had put up several mediocre years before his great 2014 season, but he had an absurdly low home run to fly ball ratio (3.9 percent) and is already expected to begin the season on the DL.Matt Shoemaker had a mostly dreadful minor league career before breaking out in the MLB last year.His low groundball percentage and high LOB% makes him a prime bust candidate. Finally, C.J. Wilson and Hector Santiago have both had three straight seasons with a WHIP north of 1.33, which makes them borderline undraftable in my book.

More Potential Sleepers: Hisashi Iwakuma, Kyle Hendricks, Danny Duffy, Raisel Iglesias, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez.

More Potential Busts: James Shields, Jake Arrieta, Dallas Keuchel, Scott Kazmir, Danny Salazar, John Lackey.