Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, and Greg Holland are clearly the position’s elite, but none of them will wind up on my teams this spring simply because of how early people tend to draft premium closers.
The aforementioned three will bring you excellent ratios and at least 90 strikeouts, but I would rather take a second OF or SP in the 4th-6th round range. Instead of spending a 5th round pick on Chapman and a 6th on Holland, I could see myself waiting until the later rounds and selecting a trio like Drew Storen, Luke Gregerson, and Tyler Clippard.
While Storen is my 16th ranked closer, if he remains the Nationals' 9th-inning guy all season, 45 saves seems likely. Gregerson has never been a full-time closer before, but he has always had excellent ratios and an average strikeout rate. Finally, Clippard is an elite reliever who will begin the year as the A’s closer, but injured Sean Doolittle is waiting in the wings to take back the closer role. Doolittle’s partially torn rotator cuff scares me, so I think Clippard has the higher upside in Oakland.
If you are someone who sees benefits to taking a top-shelf closer, I round out my top-10 with (in order), Mark Melancon, Cody Allen, Huston Street, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Kenley Jansen (injured), and Jonathan Papelbon.
Melancon has quietly been one of the sport’s best relievers over the past two years posting back-to-back seasons with sub-2.00 ERAs, sub-1.00 WHIPs, and 70+ strikeouts. Pittsburgh will be a playoff contender once again, so Melancon is a safe bet for 30-40 saves.
Allen excelled in his first year as the Indians' closer and his career 10.97 K/9 shows that the 26 year-old has 100 K potential. Street is as consistent as they come, but he falls outside of my top-five due to his low strikeout rate.
Betances may have the highest upside of any player in this article (2014 stats: 1.40 ERA/0.78 WHIP/135 Ks), but he has never been a closer at any level, and will supposedly have to beat out newcomer Andrew Miller for the Yankees' 9th inning duties.
Robertson’s 3.08 2014 ERA is my only knock against him, but he certainly possesses top-five potential. Jansen might rank 3rd or 4th on my list were it not for his pesky foot surgery, and finally Papelbon rounds out the top-10.
The Phillies' closer takes a lot of heat for his bad attitude and diminishing fastball velocity, but statistically speaking, his ERA, WHIP and save numbers over the past four seasons are 1st tier worthy. Philadelphia might only win 70 games this season, but they will certainly not be blowing anybody out, so he should still get his opportunities (plus he is likely to be traded).
Just outside of this group is (in order), Joaquin Benoit, Steve Cishek, Koji Uehara, Trevor Rosenthal, Glen Perkins, Drew Storen, Jake McGee, Hector Rondon, Luke Gregerson, and Neftali Feliz.
Benoit has great ratios and an above average strikeout rate, but has never been a closer for a full season. Still, if the Padres notch 90 wins, Benoit could be a 40-save guy.
Uehara’s ratios rank among the best in the MLB over the past three seasons, but he allowed 10 earned runs over his final 7.2 innings of 2014, so fatigue seems to be very legitimate issue here. If he remains Boston’s closer for the full season, he could approach the position’s top five.
Potential Sleepers: Ken Giles, Aaron Sanchez, Brad Boxberger, Joakim Soria, Francisco Rodriguez, Jordan Walden
Potential Busts: Fernando Rodney, Zach Britton, Addison Reed, Sean Doolittle, Santiago Casilla, Joe Nathan
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