Hot stove season is underway, and the Boston Red Sox are reportedly all-in on third baseman Pablo Sandoval. He was even in town on Monday to meet with his prospective suitors. Gulp.
Landing Sandoval is likely going to take a six-year commitment worth upwards of $100 million. That price tag is too high for a player as flawed as Sandoval, who does not have an ounce of speed, plays mediocre defense and does not hit well enough to compensate for those deficiencies.
First off, Sandoval's power is merely adequate for a corner infielder, as his .170 career Isolated Power (ISO) is nothing special and he has had a sub-.140 ISO in each of the past two seasons (the league average is typically around .140). Need tangible proof for his lack of power? Look no further than his middling home run totals: Sandoval has failed to top 16 home runs in four of his past five seasons and has never eclipsed 25. He doesn't offer the game-changing power Boston needs to supplement aging sluggers David Ortiz and Mike Napoli. Consequently, Sandoval doesn't drive in or score many runs. Obviously runs and RBI's are team-dependent stats and he's played on some pretty weak offenses in San Francisco, but long balls are the most efficient way of scoring runs. Since Sandoval doesn't swat many, he doesn't drive himself or his teammates in very often.
It's also troubling that Sandoval is already a poor defenderwho can't run and hasn't even attempted a stolen base since 2012. His plate discipline is atrocious, as his 48.1 percent chase rate was easily the highest in baseball last year and he worked just 33 walks.Furthermore, his career already appears to be in decline, as his on-base and slugging percentages have fallen every year since 2011. At 28, he should still be in his prime, but three straight seasons of sagging production is a worrisome trend that can't be ignored. He missed 99 games between 2011 and 2012 combined, then missed 21 more in 2013.Weight has always been an issue for him so unless he slims down considerably (and keeps the weight off), his decline will only accelerate. Thicker players like Sandoval tend to fade quickly because their skill set is already so limited, as opposed to the more athletic types whose all-around abilities age slowly and gracefully.
The Red Sox have a clear hole to fill at third base, as Will Middlebrooks is incompetent and Brock Holt's breakout was likely a fluke, but there are more appealing alternatives that won't cost nearly as much.Chase Headley's a good bounceback candidate who should be affordable coming off a down year, and Adrian Beltre might be available via trade. The Sox could move their shortstop, Xander Bogaerts, back to the hot corner, where he played a good amount last summer after Stephen Drew returned. They don't have to splurge on Sandoval to upgrade their hot corner situation.
I like that Boston is aggressively pursuing big-name free agents, but Sandoval is the wrong guy. Throw that money at an ace rather than pissing it away on Sandoval, a solid player but by no means a star. If you're going to spend superstar money, you better get a superstar in return, and a corner infielder who's averaged 14 homers, 72 RBI and a .280/.335/.424 line over the past three years isn't close to one.
Sandoval is a good hitter, but that's all he is, and he probably won't remain one for much longer. Boston should spend its money elsewhere and let Sandoval be someone else's mistake.
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