Since I was a young girl, I would visit my parents’ homeland of Pakistan, traveling to the cities Lahore, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Islamabad as well as my village that was three hours away from Lahore in the Punjab province. I absorbed the land with wide eyes and amazement, listening to my relatives gab away in a loud mix of Punjabi and Urdu. Sometimes, I even tried to join the conversation. As much as I tried to get used to it, I would always long to return to the United States, a place I could understand and where I felt accepted. As much as Pakistan is close to my heart, it was not my home. Nevertheless, my family returned there every two years and I would notice shifts in the landscape. It became colder and harsher, and as a woman, more unsafe. Pakistan was changing.
My parents visited last year while I was still at Tufts, but the stories they brought back created more unrest in my mind, especially echoing the apocalyptic prophecies about the instability of Pakistan in my Introduction to International Relations class. Things were changing. While my home in Pakistan was ironically located in a closed off compound called Defense, there was only one exit now with stern men with AK-47s manning the checkpoint. The people had created for themselves a curfew in the city of Lahore and women were scarcely seen on the streets. Shopping malls had increasingly become targets of suicide bombers, who often killed Muslims in order to stir unrest. I had read the news about the constant bombings and drones in the Northern provinces, how the Taliban was becoming more daring in their exploits of the small, ungoverned villages and how al-Qaida was festering in the Afghani refugee camps on the border. What I discovered was a more sinister truth. Extremists weren't attacking only Western ideals, but rather indiscriminately killing Pakistani Muslims, Christians and Jews for political measures. Pakistan is changing, and its people are paying the price.
In the last large election in Pakistan Nawaz Sharif became Prime Minister, hosting the first peaceful transition in Pakistani history. Nawaz Sharif, a man who had been forced out of power by Pervez Musharraf, brought great joy to Western media as a harbinger of stability to the region. However, as proven by last month's revolution, that is no longer the case. The largest loser of the election was cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan. And now, Mr. Imran Khan has brought an Arab Spring of sorts to Pakistan, demanding the resignation of Nawaz Sharif and his government in order to instill his ideas of equality. I have nothing against Imran Khan, but rather the sentiment that this revolution will bring only tragedy to the nation.
One reason is that Pakistan cannot mobilize across ethnic provincial and sectarian divisions which is crucial to the success of this revolution. The groups of Sind, Pashtun, Punjab, Balochi, Sunni, Shia and Christian signify the incredible diversity of the region, which, by consequence, shows up in Pakistani policy and parliamentary structure with the allocation of seats to ethnic minorities. As a result, if the revolution is “successful” it is not a far off thought to believe that there will be disputes that may lead to bloodshed when groups try to assert themselves in the new government. Pakistan has corruption, but it has only been in existence in 67 years and has bared many external threats. It deserves a chance to work rather than an upheaval of the foundation every time something goes wrong.
Another issue with the revolution occurring in Pakistan is that it rose as a pro-democracy movement, whereas Pakistan — a federal parliamentary republic — does not share the same absences of genuine political and electoral processes or political subjugation. In 2008, the nation led a pro-democratic movement, resulting in the resignation of former President Pervez Musharraf and his draconian policies. With the election of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan was able to witness its first peaceful transition of presidential powers in its mere 67 years of history. The biggest risk Pakistan faces is falling to anti-government protests, which began in early August. As said in the Karachi-based newspaper, The News, "disrupting democracy, demanding elected leaders resign or grappling for power has never served Pakistan well."
The most important point to consider is if Pakistan can successfully absorb any change brought about by such a "spring.” Can we risk being overrun by the terrorists that harbor in the ungoverned territory or risk another military coup or a regression in our social understandings? Will it be possible to avoid falling into extremism with unpredictable factions like Cleric Muhammad Tahir ul-Qadri's PAT party riding on the tailcoats of Imran Khan? Can we prevent foreign powers (regional and extra-regional) from directly intervening in Pakistan to seize its nuclear weapons during the chaos? And will Pakistan be able to escape the situation that Syria is facing?
The short answer to these questions is, most likely, no.
Mr. Salman Rafi Sheikh's article "Arab Spring and Pakistan," published in the Oriental Review and Eurasian Review, adequately describes how the conflicts on Pakistan’s borders, Pakistan's limited historical experience, the instability of the government and the disorder of internal affairs differentiate Pakistan from its Arab neighbors. These differences will inevitably cause incredible difficulties and perhaps even failure of a revolution in Pakistan.
Regardless of the situation, Pakistan is expected to change and it will. Sure, Pakistan has corruption and poverty. It has education and infrastructural issues. It is riddled with health problems and human rights violations. But that does not necessitate a revolution. Pakistan is not going to change with revolution but rather by rejuvenating participation in the electoral process, as well as substituting the current political elite with officials that can actually change the political atmosphere and pass legislation that will bring Pakistan up to speed with the rest of the world.
An Arab Spring in Pakistan will destroy it. A faulty democracy over an imperfect dictatorship, scattered corruption in government over draconian regimes and stratified security over rampant terrorism — that is the case Pakistan faces now, but it is a better position than what this revolution may bring. As stated by Mr. Sheikh, "given the current circumstances, the societal texture and political division, Pakistan does not, in any way, seem to be in a position to afford and absorb such a change." This is especially so since only 54.9 percent of the population is literate. I do not know everything about my country of origin nor will I ever claim that. Since the revolution is already under way, I hope that it succeeds and, by virtue, I am deeply mistaken. However, I believe that as of now Pakistan does not need an upheaval of government as suggested by Mr. Khan, but rather a revolution of mindset and political participation.
