Where have all the pitchers gone?
With Opening Day for most teams four days away, that's the question MLB players, general managers and fans have to be asking themselves.
As of Tuesday, there were 87 pitchers - 54 starters and 33 relievers - listed on CBSSports.com's MLB injury list. Eighty-seven!
The official injury report on MLB.com names just 57 hurting hurlers, but that list only includes "players expected to be at full health on March 30, 2014, not listed during offseason/spring training."
Some of the injuries appear minor. Neck stiffness will prevent Rangers ace Yu Darvish from starting Opening Day. A strained right calf for Zack Greinke kept him out of the Dodgers' two-game series in Sydney, Australia, but he should be back for the team's first stateside series in San Diego. Mariners right-hander HisashiIwakuma has your run-of-the-mill "sprained tendon in right middle finger" and should be ready to go in a few weeks.
Others have not been so fortunate.
So many pitchers need Tommy John surgery now that they are being separated into two categories: first-timers and second-timers. (Don't get me started on the three-time survivors. Looking at you, Jason Isringhausen.)
Among the first-timers currently on the shelf: Matt Harvey, Patrick Corbin, Eric O'Flaherty, Luke Hochevar, Chad Billingsley and Bruce Rondon.
The second timers: Jarrod Parker, Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Cory Luebke and Daniel Hudson, the latter two of whom are undergoing a second surgery without throwing a major league pitch after the first.
There are enough pitchers injured before day one to write a "We Didn't Start the Fire" spoof. Sing along: Jarrod Parker, Billingsley, Pat Corbin O'Flaherty, Harvey-Luebke-Medlen-Hudson Joe Dimaggio.
Pretty soon, the name Tommy John will be more recognizable in the U.S. than the name Barack Obama, or Ronald McDonald or Jesus.
A study last July by Bleacher Report's Will Carroll revealed that one-third of current MLB pitchers had undergone Tommy John surgery. There were about 360 pitchers who began the 2013 season with an MLB team; 124 were Tommy John recipients.
Carroll noted that, prior to his study, the generally accepted figure was one-in-nine. Really?
On the one hand, the surgery has been a godsend for many. Before 1974, when Dr. Frank Jobe first performed the surgery on Tommy John himself, a torn ulnar collateral ligament in a pitcher's elbow spelled the end of his career. Today, pitchers can come back from the surgery stronger than ever. Dr. James Andrews, who has taken the torch from Jobe, has estimated its overall success rate at around 85 percent.
Still, it would be nice to have an explanation for the epidemic. Jobe has a simple one: overuse. Case in point: a pair of pitchers from Ohio who competed in the Little League World Series underwent Tommy John surgery at age 14.
The Wall Street Journal reported last August that, of the active pitchers with at least 200 career starts, only four have never spent time on the disabled list: Mark Buehrle, Bronson Arroyo, Justin Verlander and James Shields. They're diamonds in the rough.
In 2014, two factors will determine teams' success. The first is whether their pitchers get injured. The Braves' chances have already been seriously damaged in this department. The second factor is whether they have the depth to make up for it if - when - their pitchers get injured.
And, oh, will they get injured.
Aaron Leibowitz is a senior who is majoring in American studies. He can be reached at Aaron.Leibowitz@tufts.edu.
