You are walking through a rather sparsely populated, fast−moving street. A few hundred yards away, you see a man being beaten by a couple thugs wearing inconspicuous track jackets. He is then loaded into the back of a van that drives away almost immediately. No one stops, stares or questions what's going on. After all, there is a law against loitering in a location for too long, as well as one against congregating in groups of more than a few people. You stop for a few moments, but some burly man wearing a suit and speaking Russian pushes you along, muttering something along the lines of "Keep moving or you'll be in the same situation." There are occasional posters of the autocratic leader who has firmly held onto power with help from the KGB secret police.
But you are not in the Soviet Union.
It is not the 1970s.
It is 2012 and you are in Belarus.
Aleksandr Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and after a few years of revolutionizing Belarus' economy, making its capital, Minsk, the center of the CIS economy, and increasing the human development index of Belarus to the highest in non−EU Eastern Europe, he has asserted himself in a permanent position of power as the last dictator of Europe.
Oh yeah, maybe I forgot to mention that Lukashenko is the only dictator still in power in Europe. In many ways, Belarus is both the last European dictatorship and the last remains of the Soviet Union. But before I go more in depth with those aspects, I feel it's necessary to discuss the most interesting parts about this place you may have only heard mentioned off−handedly when discussing oil trade or (if you're not an Eastern Europe aficionado) as "that−place−next−to−Russia."
So what's the deal with Belarus? Well, Lukashenko has assured its economic prowess by ripping off neighboring nations. See, Belarus has a good chunk just covered in forest (about a third of the total land mass), and its major sources of revenue are agriculture and manufacturing. "But wait," you may ask, "what about all that oil stuff you mentioned before?"
Well, interestingly enough, Lukashenko put through a trade agreement in the late 1990s with Russian president Boris Yeltsin, which assured a free trade region between the nations, similar to NAFTA. Except the Belarusian president is also rather shrewd: he takes a percentage of the profit from the oil that Russia sends through Belarus to be traded abroad and adds it to the Belarusian economy — something he calls his "economic miracle."
But this doesn't make any economy flourish, or even succeed comfortably, to be honest. In fact, the only reason Belarus isn't completely bankrupt right now is because up until 2002, Belarus' economy had been running on what is mostly a glitch in the system of post−Soviet subsidies: profiting off the collapse of the Soviet Union. That economic boost is what caused the human development to rise off the charts. Belarus has better literacy and health than, and similiar factors for people (except for the whole oppressive dictator part) as, much of the developed world. But once 2002 hit, Minsk ran out of money, and has been operating off of what little it can scrape from Russia's economy, as well as loans from the IMF and the EU. But starting this year, Belarus is required to pay back its loans, using money it still doesn't have.
As we've seen throughout history, bad economies create internal tensions. The people have taken to the streets in protest against the Lukashenko regime and its economic policies. To paraphrase President Clinton, everything goes back to the economy. But the government doesn't allow protests, so the Belarusian people have been organizing something known colloquially as "The Applause Movement."
Essentially, a group of about 30 or so people takes to an area in the street, and just starts clapping. That's it. Not explicitly sardonically or protest−like, but enough so that it garners the attention of the state. During their July 3rd Independence Day ceremonies, hundreds of people gathered and started applauding, like they do every Wednesday, and many of them met similar ends.
First, inconspicuously dressed secret agents of the government grab some members of the protest, throwing them to the ground and beating them into submission if they do not comply. Then, a larger group of thugs dressed in track jackets come as the second wave, ensuring people are subdued and dragging them into vans waiting on the street corners. And finally, a group of secret police with suits and earpieces clean up the area, subdue the crowd, and make sure people act as though nothing had happened. The response is quick and the reaction is violent. This is one of the reasons Lukashenko put forth a law barring anyone from meeting in a pre−determined location in large groups (yes, that is actually codified).
Much of this, though, is purely for public image — it's the ideology that, if no one notices that there are people protesting your regime, then there's nothing wrong with it. In fact, just to be even stranger, there was an incident a few months ago where protesters gathered in the Minsk streets, and in order to make it appear as though there was nothing wrong and that the regime was still in control, Lukashenko quickly organized a rock concert at that exact spot where people were gathering. That way, what was originally a protest turned into a distraction. It's rather brilliant and shrewd, in some ways. It is interesting, though, that it is entirely unpredictable whether protesting will get you exiled or to a rock concert.
Lukashenko is starting to be a little more creative in his oppression as well. During the July 3rd protests, the government did something truly ingenious. We saw the use of Twitter in the Iranian Green Revolution, the Tahrir Square uprisings and in Syria as a means of getting news out about protests. However, all of these information movements took place under regimes with little technological capacity. Belarus, more technologically adept, created thousands of fake Twitter accounts, all tweeting positive statements about the regime, with the same #July3 hashtag. Thus, there was information overload and no one could discern true or false information. Belarus is getting creative, but the people are getting stronger.
The regime is collapsing. Right now, everything depends on the Russian elections. Putin is keeping Lukashenko afloat, much to the dismay of the Russian economy, and without Russian subsidies, Belarus will have no money to pay back the IMF or EU. The protests are growing and spreading. The opposition leaders have all been exiled to Poland or Lithuania, but there are more opposition movements constantly growing and organizing. In all honesty, the future of Belarus is quirky, tumultuous and unpredictable.
As for right now, that burly guy in the track jacket is starting to get really angry and you can see a van following you. Maybe you should start walking a bit more quickly.
This topic, and others related to it, will be discussed at the EPIIC symposium, which will take place from Feb. 22−26.
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