The men's basketball team will kick off its NESCAC Tournament bid on Saturday when, for the first time since 2006, Tufts will have the honor of hosting the quarterfinals as the No. 4 seed. No. 1 Amherst, No. 2 Middlebury and No. 3 Wesleyan will also welcome opponents to their home courts as the favorites to advance to next weekend. The fourth through eighth seeds have almost identical split conference records, meaning some close games are likely to ensue — including in Cousens Gym when the Jumbos welcome the No. 5 Bates Bobcats.
While the majority of the teams are evenly-matched, it will be difficult to dethrone the defending NESCAC champion and national semifinalist Panthers, the top-seeded Lord Jeffs or a hot Cardinals squad.
To get you ready, the Daily breaks down the eight tournament hopefuls.
No. 1 seed: Amherst (22-2, 10-0 NESCAC)
The Lord Jeffs are the top-ranked team and the tournament favorite. However, they may not be as dominant as their record suggests. Four of Amherst's 10 conference wins have come by two points — not to mention a non-conference loss to Wesleyan on Jan. 17, 68-67 — and the Lord Jeffs sit behind the Panthers in almost every offensive category. Amherst has one of the worst field goal percentages among the playoff contenders, as well as unthreatening rebounding numbers. They have only one player — sophomore guard Aaron Toomey — in the league's top 15 scorers.
But they are the No. 2 team in the country for a reason: they win. None of their wins against the top half of the NESCAC have been easy, but their record speaks to their focus and work ethic. It will take an unseen amount of consistency from No. 8 Hamilton — which Amherst beat 85-68 on Jan. 13 — to rattle them on Saturday. Hamilton's league-leading 200 steals on the season speak to their highly aggressive defense and pace. And, while they don't have an offensive standout on their roster, they do have four players with at least nine points a game who can carry the load if Toomey is somehow quieted.
No. 2 seed Middlebury (22-2, 9-1 NESCAC)
After losing in overtime to the Lord Jeffs on Saturday, 77-75, Middlebury lost the nation's No. 2 spot and fell into fourth. But the Panthers still may be the best NESCAC team. Against Amherst, they out-rebounded and out-shot their hosts, but a foul-out and an errant inbound pass sealed the win for Amherst. Should the two teams meet again in the NESCAC Championship game, the Panthers will be hungry for revenge.
Middlebury leads the conference in scoring and rebounding, with three-time Player of the Week, senior forward Ryan Sharry, dominating in both categories with 19.8 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. The Panthers also have won more convincingly than Amherst, with only three of their victories coming by fewer than four points and their two losses coming by a combined three points. The only NESCAC team besides Amherst to come within a point of beating them: Williams, their first-round matchup. Should the seventh-seeded Ephs pull off the upset they almost escaped with on Jan. 28, the semifinals would become much more unpredictable.
No. 3 seed Wesleyan (19-5, 7-3 NESCAC)
The Cardinals have a legitimate shot to steal this tournament from either one of the teams above them. They beat the Lord Jeffs by one in a non-league game on Jan. 17 and came within three points of Middlebury. They are also riding a five-game win streak, have held their opponents to the lowest scoring average in the playoff field and have one of the league's best players in two-time Player of the Week, junior guard Shasha Brown. Simply put, Wesleyan has the potential to beat anyone in the NESCAC on any given day. And, with their quarterfinal matchup coming against a Bowdoin squad that Wesleyan beat 74-61 on Friday to seal the No. 3 seed, an upset doesn't seem likely.
No. 4 seed Tufts (16-7, 6-4 NESCAC)
The Jumbos have already reached uncharted territory this season. None of the current players has won as many as 16 games in a season or hosted a NESCAC quarterfinal. In addition, no Tufts squad has ever been so deep — 10 players have posted double-digit games at some point over the course of the season. But a recent skid may hurt their chances heading into the playoffs, as the Jumbos' top performers have been struggling to produce and have let their past three games slip away in the final minutes — most recently on their own court against non-league Clark, 70-64, after leading by 11 early in the second half. If the Jumbos don't find a way to bounce back and play an energetic 40 minutes on Saturday, they may suffer a similar fate to their early tournament exit last season.
No. 5 seed Bates (11-12, 5-5 NESCAC)
The Bobcats have lost six of their last seven games, and the lone bright spot in that span was a 60-59 last-second win over lowly Trinity. Bates has struggled all season to find a rhythm, and only two of their five conference wins have come by more than four points. Overall, they are an inconsistent squad that Tufts should beat as it did on Jan. 28, 67-62 — assuming the Jumbos return to their form of a few weeks ago.
No. 6 seed Bowdoin (17-7, 5-5 NESCAC)
The Polar Bears enjoyed some late-season success. They have gone 7-2 since their Jan. 20 loss to Amherst, and one of those two defeats was a three-point game against Middlebury. Their wins have come in dominant fashion, the most recent being a 95-52 thrashing of Conn. College on Saturday. They have two excellent scorers — the league's second-leading scorer, senior Will Hanley (18.3 points per game), and the eighth-leading scorer, senior Ryan O'Connell (13.9 points per game). Ultimately, though, they will likely have trouble stopping Wesleyan on the defensive end.
No. 7 seed Williams (17-7, 5-5 NESCAC)
The Ephs are also on the rise, and they haven't dropped a game by more than two points in regulation in over a month. Their last two losses — an overtime battle with Bowdoin and a two-point loss to the Lord Jeffs — show their potential to compete against higher-ranked teams. They played Middlebury down to the wire earlier in the season, but an upset will be hard to come by against the mighty Panthers.
No. 8 seed Hamilton (15-9, 4-6 NESCAC)
Simply put, the Continentals will need a miracle to beat Amherst. A number eight seed has never upset the top seed in the NESCAC era, and don't expect it to happen on Saturday. Hamilton is too weak defensively, and while it strung together some comeback upsets to squeeze into the tournament in its first season in the conference, the Lord Jeffs have too many scoring threats for the Continentals to handle.
