North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Michigan State Spartans. ACC regular-season champs vs. Big 10 regular-season champs. Michael Jordan's alma mater vs. Magic Johnson's. Henry Ford vs. the Wright Brothers. The NCAA men's basketball championship game tips off tonight at 9:21 p.m. in Detroit, where UNC and MSU will duke it out for basketball supremacy. UNC will be gunning for its fifth championship, the second under Roy Williams. MSU looks to capture its third national title, the first since the Mateen Cleaves-led 2000 team defeated the Florida Gators.
On paper, UNC should run away with the title. The Tar Heels' play oozed with confidence on Saturday night, and such an experienced team should remain calm under pressure. But then again, the same was said about the UConn Huskies when they took on Michigan State. The Spartans have thrived in their underdog role. They've already taken out two No. 1 seeds, so what's one more, right? This game is chock-full of interesting matchups and factors, and these are five of the most important.
1. Point guard play: The battle of the diminutive guards will be crucial in this game. MSU wants to try and slow the game down, and the tempo will remain largely up to Spartans sophomore Kalin Lucas to decide when to run and when to hold back. As for UNC junior Ty Lawson, he will be looking to push the fast break all game. Lawson has been the best player for UNC all tournament long. Simply put, he is what makes the team go. In its two ACC Tournament games without him, the team averaged 76 points. In its four NCAA games with him, it's averaged 84. He is relentless in his attack and has shown the ability to finish strong in traffic. At times, he is vulnerable defensively, especially when trying to contain a strong penetrating player like Lucas.
Lucas had a strong showing in the semifinal game against UConn, scoring 21 points and dishing out five assists. Like Lawson, he's a threat to score any time he has the ball. While he may not be as prolific a scorer as Lawson, Lucas is just as important to his team. Though he is the Spartans' second-youngest starter, it is clear that Lucas is their leader on the court. MSU needs him to show the same kind of defensive effort that held UConn senior guards A.J. Price and Craig Austrie to combined 7-for-24 shooting.
2. UNC's three-point shooting: UNC's most impressive stat from its semifinal win over the Villanova Wildcats was its 11-for-22 three-point shooting display, led by junior Wayne Ellington (5 of 7) and senior Danny Green (4 of 10). On most fast breaks, Ellington and Green look to spot up on the wings and let Lawson attract the defense and then kick it out for open looks. Against Villanova, it worked wonders. If the two sharpshooters are on the mark again, UNC is very tough to stop. MSU cannot afford to be passive in defending the three-point line. The Spartans will have to close out three-point shooters like they did against UConn. Against the Huskies, MSU players were running all the shooters off the three-point line, largely willing to allow penetration instead of an open three-pointer. They need a repeat performance in perimeter defense to keep UNC from breaking the game open.
3. The battle of the post: After battling 7'3" junior Hasheem Thabeet and the rest of the Huskies, Michigan State is ready to handle anything inside, and it needs to be. The combination of senior Tyler Hansbrough and junior Deon Thompson has been tough for any opponent to defend all year. Thompson won't overpower many defenders inside but has quick post moves and knows how to get his shot. Hansbrough, last year's Player of the Year, is known for his tenacity inside and is unyielding in his pursuit of both points and rebounds. In his last collegiate game, expect Psycho T to play with even more energy than normal as he tries to cap off a phenomenal college career with the one thing that's eluded him -- a national championship.
MSU relies on senior Goran Suton to do a lot of the dirty work down low. He is a strong presence defensively and on the glass, and he has no problem getting into pushing and shoving, as he showed against UConn. At 6'10", 245 pounds, he has the ability to outmuscle Hansbrough on the block, much like the Oklahoma Sooners' senior Taylor Griffin did in the Elite Eight, holding the UNC senior to just eight points. The Spartans also need another big game out of junior Raymar Morgan, who had 18 points and nine rebounds against UConn.
4. Home-court advantage: Ford Field is just 90 miles from Michigan State's East Lansing campus. The Spartan fans' presence was felt even among the 70,000-plus that attended the semifinal game, and with UConn and Villanova fans likely to sell their tickets, the MSU contingent will be even louder. The Spartans were 12-2 at home this season, so expect them to thrive off the crowd's enthusiasm. It could also further perpetuate UNC's problems at the free-throw line, where the Tar Heels made only 22 of 37 attempts Saturday night.
5. Memory: On Dec. 3, UNC trounced MSU 98-63 at Ford Field. Both teams claim that Michigan State is a completely different team now, but there is no doubt that the memory still lingers somewhere in both teams' minds. UNC has to feel confident that it was able to break down everything Michigan State was trying to do defensively. As for MSU, the game allows the Spartans to key in on some of the aspects of UNC's game plan that worked and try to neutralize the Heels this time around.
