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The Tufts Daily
Where you read it first | Thursday, November 28, 2024

Dodgers, Phillies vying for chance to play in Fall Classic

    There's only one thing for certain in this year's baseball playoffs: everyone at FOX is happy.
    In the National League Championship Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies — two large-market teams full of youth, homegrown talent and exciting brands of baseball.
    On one side, the Phillies have one of the deepest and most balanced lineups in baseball. They have the past two NL MVPs in Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard, while Chase Utley is the best second baseman in baseball. Utley, the only one who has not won an MVP award, is the best of the three, providing the team with serious offensive and defensive production at second base; the other two are probably a bit overrated.
    Utley led all major league second basemen with 33 homers, 104 RBI and a .915 OPS, while his zone rating was fourth-best. Rollins, on the other hand, made the most outs by an MVP ever, and his .786 OPS this season is almost 100 points lower than last year. He does, however, provide a spark at the top of the offense, especially with those ridiculous 47 steals in 50 attempts — he's just not a player that should have an MVP trophy on his mantle.
    Howard put up impressive counting stats this season, leading the majors with 48 home runs and 141 RBI, but his .251 average and .339 on-base percentage are poor, and the fact that his OPS was lower than that of Cleveland outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is less than inspiring.
    Still, that's not to say that the Phillies' lineup does not have depth. Shane Victorino has decent power and great speed to go along with a consistently solid on-base percentage — all desirable qualities in a No. 2 hitter — and his Game 2 heroics proved he's capable of stepping up in a big spot (he hit a two-out, 1-2 pitch from CC Sabathia for a grand slam).
    In the five hole, he is one of the most underappreciated hitters in the playoffs. His .250 average makes him look mediocre, but he has patience and power, compiling a respectable .367 on-base percentage and .507 slugging percentage. After that, Jayson Werth had a quiet 20-20 year, and he is particularly strong against right-handers (.303 average, 1.020 OPS), who happen to make up the entire Dodgers playoff rotation.
    As for the team hailing from the opposite coast, Los Angeles boasts an offense with several solid role players and up-and-comers but only one true superstar: Manny Ramirez. After hitting .396 with a 1.23 OPS during the regular season (the NL portion of it, anyway), Ramirez led the Dodgers to a sweep of the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS by hitting .500 with two home runs over three games.
    Behind him, Andre Ethier and his .885 OPS provide solid protection, while Matt Kemp provides power and speed remarkably comparable to that of Victorino — Kemp's stats include a .290 average, 18 HR, 35 steals and 11 times caught stealing; Victorino posted a .293 average, 14 HR, 36 steals and 11 times caught stealing.
    Arguably the second most important hitter in the lineup, however, is Rafael Furcal. If he can contribute like he did before he got hurt, hitting .367 with 15 walks against 15 strikeouts in April, he could be as productive as Rollins at the top of the order for Philadelphia, if not more so. Aside from that, Russell Martin is much better than Carlos Ruiz, and his batter's eye (90 walks, 83 strikeouts) make him a good fit as the second hitter in the lineup, while Juan Pierre is always around as the best pinch-runner in baseball. It may sound insignificant, but everybody remembers the Dave Roberts' pinch-running performance for the Red Sox in 2004.
    In terms of pitching, these two teams will provide some interesting matchups. In Game 1 to be played Thursday, Derek Lowe will face off against Cole Hamels. Lowe is a more accomplished postseason pitcher, with a 3.31 ERA and a ring, but Hamels has the advantage of youth and talent, as the 24-year-old southpaw led the majors with a 1.08 WHIP.
    Lowe figures to have success even at a notorious hitters' park, as he has only allowed 14 homers this year. Hamels, by contrast, has allowed 28 homers, but his home ERA is 2.99 on the season, making the duel a promising one.
    In the next game, Chad Billingsley will take on Brett Myers. In this game the Dodgers will have the advantage of youth and talent, as Billingsley was eleventh in the majors with a 3.14 ERA and ninth with 201 strikeouts. Brett Myers, meanwhile, has had an up-and-down season, compiling an ERA as high as 6.67 in June and as low as 1.65 in August. In his only playoff start this year, he went seven innings, allowing only two runs on two hits with three walks and four strikeouts, but it's impossible to predict how he will fare in Game 2.
    In Game 3, it will likely be a battle of finesse pitchers in Hiroki Kuroda and Jamie Moyer. Both compiled similar ERAs during the year (3.73 versus 3.71), but Kuroda had better peripheral stats (1.22 WHIP, 2.76 K/BB versus 1.33 WHIP, 1.98 K/BB). That may explain why he had more success in his only postseason start, throwing 6.1 scoreless innings, whereas Moyer allowed two runs in only four innings.
    The bullpens of both teams are possibly the most interesting comparison. The Dodgers have a deep pen full of power arms, but the Phillies are not without their own strengths. They boast an elite closer in Brad Lidge (1.95 ERA, 12.2 K/9, 41-for-41 in save opportunities), while the Dodgers' Takashi Saito was one of the best in the game before he injured his elbow in July (2.49, 11.8, 18-for-22). While Saito gave up two runs and recorded no outs in his only postseason appearance, the team plans to stick with him at closer. Should he falter, however, Philadelphia will not hesitate to turn it over to Jonathan Broxton, who filled in for Saito while he was injured and recorded a 3.13 ERA and 12.0 K/9 on the year.
    For the seventh inning, the Dodgers have relied on Cory Wade, who only posted a 7.2 K/9 but was still successful, compiling a 2.27 ERA and .93 WHIP. The Dodgers also have Hong-Chih Kuo, (2.14 ERA and 11.5 K/9), but the possibility of a blood clot kept him out of the NLDS against the Cubs and could do the same for this series.
    For the Phillies, Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin have been good (3.05 and 2.87 ERAs, respectively), though Madson's peripherals indicate he is the better pitcher (1.23 WHIP, 2.91 K/BB and 7.6 K/9 versus 1.32, 1.80 and 6.7). The Phillies also have a fantastic lefty specialist in J.C. Romero, who held fellow lefties to a .102 average this year.
    In long relief, the Phillies will likely go to Joe Blanton (1.40 WHIP) or Kyle Kendrick (1.61), neither of whom are very good, whereas the Dodgers could use the experience and expertise of Greg Maddux (1.21 WHIP, 3.27 K/BB) or the electricity of Clayton Kershaw (1.50 WHIP, but 8.2 K/9 as a starter). Using any of these pitchers, however, would limit the team's rotation options for what could potentially be a seven-game series.
    No matter what happens, the Phillies and Dodgers promise to provide some baseball fans an intriguing series. In recent years, the National League hasn't received much respect in terms of World Series contenders, but either of these teams could easily end its season with a pile-up on the pitcher's mound.