The Philadelphia Phillies have long been the loveable losers of Major League Baseball. Originally founded in 1883, the Phillies have only won six pennants and one World Series in their entire existence. They also hold the dubious honor of having lost the most games of any club in major league history. Being from Philadelphia, they fit right in, where the last major sports team to win a championship was the 76ers in 1983.
But fear not, Phillies fans: This year just might be the year. The recipe for success in the playoffs starts with quality pitching, and that's just what the Phillies have.
Their rotation is fronted by the best pitcher in the series: Cy Young candidate Cole Hamels, who compiled a 3.09 ERA and led the majors with a 1.08 WHIP this season. Mixing a low 90s fastball with an 80 mph change, the lefty can outright baffle hitters with his fluctuation in velocity, which is why he totaled 196 strikeouts during the season. His tight mid-70s curve isn't too bad either; it's a perfect complement to the fastball-changeup combo, spinning more than 10 inches lower than his heater.
Hamels also has the benefit of experience. After dropping his only start of the playoffs last year, Hamels has won all three of his outings this year, giving up just three runs in 22 innings. If the Phillies need him to, Hamels could pitch three games in the series, giving them a big advantage over the Rays, who have nobody comparable. Scott Kazmir may have the stuff, James Shields may have the control and David Price may have the potential, but the 24-year-old Hamels is now a bona fide ace. Closing out games for Hamels will be Brad Lidge, who was the best at shutting the door in the majors this season. Equipped with a fastball that can touch triple digits, Lidge put together a 1.95 ERA and went 41-for-41 in save opportunities, while his 92 strikeouts were fourth among major league relievers. He also seems to have cast off the psychological scars of the Albert Pujols home run in the 2005 NLCS, as he has already registered five saves in the playoffs with no trouble.
On the whole, the Philadelphia bullpen is underrated, as it was second in the majors with a 3.19 ERA this season. Ryan Madson had a good year in the setup role, sporting a 3.05 ERA and increasing his K/BB ratio from 1.87 in 2007 to 2.91 this season. His stuff has always been there, as evidenced by the 49 percent swing-and-miss rate on his changeup going back to '07; but at age 28, he's finally learning how to be a complete pitcher. The pen also includes one of the best lefty specialists in baseball in J.C. Romero, who allowed only 10 hits in 30.2 innings to lefties this year, amounting to a .102 batting average against. His southpaw delivery will almost certainly prove useful in the late innings of a close game when Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena steps into the batter's box.
But that's only one side of the Phillies' game: They also feature one of the deepest lineups in the majors. While their two MVP winners, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard, are sure to gather a lot of attention, Chase Utley is their best player. Posting a .375 OBP and belting 33 home runs, Utley has provided both power and consistency for the Phillies' offense. He's also handy with the leather, establishing the fourth-best zone rating of any second baseman in baseball.
Both Rollins and Howard are more specialized in their roles: Rollins provides the qualities of a good leadoff hitter while Howard has a game-changing swing. Although he's no longer the 30-home run hitter of 2007, Rollins managed 58 walks against 55 strikeouts this season, while stealing 47 bases in 50 attempts.
Howard saw his OBP drop from .392 to .339 within the past two years, but he still launched 48 home runs and knocked in 146 RBI. He hasn't looked particularly good in the playoffs, slugging a mere .323; but he's still feared enough to garner a .410 OBP. That's because opposing managers know that any ball he makes contact with could leave the yard so they simply elect to put him on base.
That may not be the wisest decision, however, as the ever-underrated Pat Burrell hits behind Howard in the lineup. The left fielder hit 33 dingers this year and walked 102 times, compiling an .875 OPS. He provides great protection for Howard, as his command of the strike zone and ability to turn on a fastball puts a lot of pressure on the pitcher when there are men on base.
In center field, Shane Victorino provides balance and versatility, hitting 14 homers with 36 steals and batting in every spot in the lineup besides third and fourth. In right, Jayson Werth is another player that can do a little bit of everything, swatting 24 long balls and stealing 20 bases. Manning the hot corner, Pedro Feliz provides the glove while Greg Dobbs brings the bat, recording an .846 OPS against righties.
Despite the quality of the Phillies' lineup and the power arms on their staff, hitting and pitching may not even be the team's strongest suits. The Phillies really excel above the rest of the league in defense and baserunning. They were fourth in the league with 136 steals as a team, and while some may be quick to point out that the Rays were first with 142, the Phillies did it at a Major League-best 84 percent clip, compared to 74 percent for Tampa Bay.
In terms of fielding, there are few statistics that can accurately portray the efficiency of a team's defense. The best and most widely available measure may be fielding plus/minus, which represents the number of outs above or below average a team makes in the field based on the number and type of batted balls allowed (so teams with more opportunities don't automatically appear more efficient). The Phillies were fourth in the majors, fielding 52 balls above average. The Rays weren't bad, coming in ninth with 24 outs above average, but that's still less than half of Philadelphia's mark.
It's often the little things that make the differences in the playoffs, whether it's a run-saving defensive play or a timely manufactured run. The Phillies can run, field, and they have pitchers that have been practicing bunts all season. Add that to their young ace, their deep lineup, and their ability to close, and maybe it's time for the city of Philadelphia to start thinking about another ticker tape parade. It's only been 25 years.
