On this day one year ago, the Boston Red Sox sat comfortably atop the American League East, looking down with disdain on the fifth-place Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who trailed by 29 games.
A year later, the image is quite different, as the redefined Tampa Bay Rays lead the Red Sox by a game-and-a-half and have clinched their first playoff appearance in team history. The New York Yankees, who have been playing ball in October in every year since the strike-shortened 1994 season, are out of the hunt. The Sox and Rays will join the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and likely the Chicago White Sox in postseason competition.
The Rays started off hot, leading the East at the end of April, but the majority of the baseball world was skeptical of their ability to keep up with perennial playoff Goliaths Boston and New York. Tampa Bay has silenced all doubters by leading the division at the end of each month this season.
The Rays' young pitching staff has been the impetus for this season's surprising success. They are currently second in the AL in ERA, WHIP and BAA. Their bullpen has been outstanding with key members J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler, Chad Bradford and Grant Balfour all posting stellar ERAs of 3.25 or lower. All five of the young starters have posted double-digit wins, including James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza who all have sub-four ERAs.
Despite its serious lack of experience, Tampa Bay can look optimistically at the recent performance of Andy Sonnanstine, who out-dueled Boston ace Josh Beckett twice in one week when the Rays' position in first place was in jeopardy.
One concern for Tampa heading into the playoffs is its lead hurler, Scott Kazmir, who had an abysmal performance in a crucial matchup against the Red Sox in Tampa Bay last week in a 13-5 loss. For the man who began the season regarded by many as the staff's ace, Kazmir is still shy of 150 innings pitched, ranking fifth on the staff.
A sign of the changing winds, however, Kazmir still has managed to lead the staff in strikeouts, as well as ERA, posting a gaudy 3.36. For the Rays to be successful in October, Kazmir needs to step up to the big-game pressure and pitch like the stud he has been for Tampa his entire young career.
While the Red Sox' pitching has been effective in 2008, its offense has been the headlining story. The Sox are second only to the high-powered Texas Rangers in runs scored and team batting average, and they lead the American League in on-base percentage. Seven of their players have posted double digits in home runs, including Jason Bay and ex-Sox player Manny Ramirez, who have hammered 29 long balls in their combined season with the team.
First baseman and second baseman Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia have been crucial pieces to the Red Sox offensive attack this season, hitting .309 and .324, respectively, with a combined 93 doubles and 43 home runs. With J.D. Drew likely out for the rest of the year and Mike Lowell questionable for the last week, Pedroia and Youkilis need to continue to propel the offense through October.
The Sox have both momentum and experience on their side as the head into the playoffs. Since the passing of the non-waiver trade deadline when general manager Theo Epstein made the decision to trade the future Hall of Famer Ramirez, the Sox have gone 30-16 and padded their lead in the wild card race by six games.
In addition, the intangible of postseason experience remains on their side. Every starting position player, save shortstop Jed Lowrie and Bay, were along for the magical 2007 World Series run. Also, the entire starting rotation, along with four bullpen members, pitched in the playoffs last season.
After struggling through what has been a largely disappointing season, Beckett is now healthy and refocused, allowing just two runs in 17 innings over his last two starts. This certainly bodes well for the local nine, as Beckett went 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his four starts during the 2007 playoff run. Along with Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who have combined for a 33-8 record thus far in 2007, the Sox have an extremely formidable three-man rotation that still puts fear in the heart of any major leaguer come playoff time.
With the White Sox (or Minnesota Twins, who are still fighting to catch the North Siders) seemingly the weakest of AL playoff teams, the Angels not having played a meaningful game in over a month and a National League that provides little depth beyond the Chicago Cubs, the Rays and Red Sox are the teams to beat this October. It will be interesting to see if the Rays can continue to shock the world with their youth and miniscule payroll or if the power and experience of this year's Red Sox squad will launch them to their third title in five years.
