On Tuesday, Johan Santana was finally traded to the New York Mets for four players - Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Here's a breakdown of the deal for, the Mets and their trading partner, the Minnesota Twins:
Gomez is the "star" player in the Twins' package. He's a speedy 22-year-old center fielder who has stolen 64, 41 and 31 bases in each of the last three years. The key for Gomez is his plate discipline and power - or lack thereof. His career minor league on-base percentage is a mediocre .339, and his career slugging percentage is an abysmal .399.
Gomez certainly has potential; he is still very young and managed to post a .363 on-base percentage in AAA last season. His defense is reputably above-average in center, and some believe that he will develop necessary plate discipline, along with decent power, to become a star; however, to this point, he has shown little of either.
Humber was highly touted when he was drafted out of Rice in 2005, but his stock has since fallen. After battling injuries, Humber put up less than inspiring numbers in AAA this year, striking out 120 batters and giving up a whopping 21 homers in only 139 innings. Even if he rights the ship, his ceiling is no higher than a third starter - and that's assuming everything goes right for him.
Mulvey survives by throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the park; in 151 innings in Double-A this year, he struck out only 110 but allowed just four homers. However, his stuff is not above average and this limits his ceiling to most likely a No. 4 starter.
Guerra is only 18 years old and has a blazing fastball. Considering he was so young last year, his stats of 66 strikeouts and 25 walks in 89 high-A innings are pretty good; however, Guerra is mostly projection at this point. While his ceiling is high, there is no riskier bet in baseball than an 18-year-old starting pitcher with no offspeed pitches.
The Twins must value Gomez very highly - likely, they viewed him as the best single player being offered to them, ahead of Phil Hughes, Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury. Gomez has a higher ceiling than all of these players, but his likelihood of reaching his potential is questionable.
Minnesota also received two pitchers who, while providing some decent depth, appear to have little upside. Guerra is a live arm who is a couple of years away from contributing, if he ever makes it at all. Certainly, this return is preferable to letting Santana walk and receiving only draft picks; however, if some of the deals rumored during the winter meetings were actually offered, then it appears that the Twins settled for a far inferior package.
The Mets, on the other hand, made out like bandits - until you consider Santana's contract extension. For New York, Gomez is superfluous because of a superior Carlos currently residing in center field. While the Mets are lacking in pitching depth, they can afford to part ways with Mulvey and Guerra because they are receiving such a high-quality arm. That they managed to land Santana without giving up their top two prospects, Fernando Martinez and Mike Pelfrey, is quite a coup. What's more is that, if healthy, Santana should thrive pitching in the National League, in spacious Shea Stadium and in front of a stellar defense.
But is Santana healthy? And will he remain so for the length of his likely five- or six-year extension? Consider this: on Aug. 19, Santana struck out 17 Texas Rangers over eight innings. In his remaining seven starts, his velocity was down, he stopped throwing his slider and he had an ERA of 5.11. He allowed 1.84 homers per nine innings in these starts, as opposed to 1.23 per nine before the game against the Rangers; his strikeout rate fell from 10.71 per nine to 9.00 and his walk rate rose from 2.00 per nine to 2.66.
Equally worrisome: Who was the last pitcher to receive a big-money, long-term contract and not end up disappointing, let alone failing completely? Such deals hark back to Kevin Brown, Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton. Remember Eric Milton? Even Mike Mussina failed to live up to his contract. Sure, these guys may not seem like superstars now, but when Brown and Hampton signed their huge contracts, they were, like Santana, considered to be among the best in the game and good long-term investments.
Santana drastically improves the Mets' 2008 rotation, assuming last year's poor finish was just a minor blip. However, even if he's completely healthy, the Mets could wind up regretting the deal in two, three or four years. In the meantime, they have now entered into the discussion of the best team in the National League - alongside the Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks and perhaps the Milwaukee Brewers.
