It's scary to think that an entire season could rest on one flip of a coin.
But for the men's soccer team, that fear could become a reality.
The goal is simple this weekend: win and in. The Jumbos control their own destiny - with a win over Conn. College, they lock up a NESCAC Tournament spot. But with a tie and a Colby win over last-place Bates, things will get scary for the Jumbos.
Tufts, currently 2-5-1 in NESCAC play, is currently a half-game ahead of Colby (1-5-2). Both teams are vying for the seventh and final spot in the conference tournament, and the Mules must win to stay alive.
A Tufts loss and a Colby win will leapfrog the Mules over the Jumbos for the final playoff slot, leaving Tufts out of the NESCAC Tournament for the first time since its inception in 2000. On the other hand, if Tufts ties and Colby wins, it's a dead heat at 2-5-2. The teams would rely on the NESCAC tiebreaking system to determine their respective fates.
Given that the teams played to a 2-2 deadlock in their head-to-head matchup, their final standing would be determined by their records against the rest of the NESCAC. But here's the thing: with a Jumbos tie and a Mules win, those records would be identical. The coin flip is the only factor left.
Needless to say, the Jumbos won't be taking the Camels or their winless conference record for granted.
"They haven't won, but they haven't been blown out either," senior midfielder Alex Botwinick said. "There are no weak teams in the NESCAC."
"They're kind of like us in that we haven't given up more than two goals in a game this year, and we like to point to that," junior Peter DeGregorio said. "It works both ways. No team has trampled them either."
Should Tufts make the playoffs, it will play one of the three potential No. 1 seeds on the road Sunday: Amherst (7-1), Middlebury (7-1), or Williams (6-2).
"We have vendettas against all three teams," DeGregorio said.
"We feel that Williams unjustly beat us [this year]," senior tri-captain Alex Bedig said. "We have a history with Middlebury that I'd like to correct. I'm referring to my first two years when they knocked us out of the playoffs."
"But I'd have to pick Amherst [as the team I'd most like to play] because our playoff game against them went down to the wire last year, with them winning on penalty kicks," he continued. "Plus, it'd be the shortest drive, and I might get to sleep in my own bed."
In the past three seasons, disappointing first-round losses have been the norm. In 2004 the Jumbos fell to Middlebury 4-3 in overtime, and in 2005 they lost to Middlebury by one goal again. Last season Tufts lost on penalty kicks to No. 2-seeded Amherst.
This time around, they want to be the spoilers.
"It would be great to play next Saturday [in the second round] as well," senior Alex Botwinick said.
"It would mean a lot to the seniors to advance past the first round after the disappointing losses each of the past three years," said sophomore goalie Pat Tonelli, who will be playing for the injured junior David McKeon this weekend.
The 2007 edition of the men's soccer team features a good mix of young players and seasoned veterans. Yet at this point in the season, the players insist that labels get thrown out the window.
"It's no longer about who's got potential," Bedig said. "It's now about who's going to play the best on a certain day."
And part of that will have to do with physicality on the field, as the sense of urgency often lends itself to a noticeable increase in physical play.
"At the end of the season, when the playoffs are in sight, the tendency is for things to get more physical," DeGregorio said. "The referees allow for more shoulder -to-shoulder contact."
There's no question about it - the Jumbos are prepared for the style of play in the NESCAC Tournament. The only question left is whether they'll be around to show it.
