Let's consider the curious case of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The D-Backs currently sport the best record in the National League. If you were paying attention to some of the more enlightened analysts out there at the beginning of the season, this should be of little surprise to you.
At the beginning of the year, Arizona sported a roster full of outstanding young players and a pitching staff headed by reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb and a rejuvenated Randy Johnson. Heralded young players such as centerfielder Chris B. Young, shortstop Stephen Drew and first baseman Conor Jackson were expected by many to develop and lead the Diamondbacks to a division crown.
The division crown indeed looks likely, as does a spot in the postseason. However, despite their lofty record, the Diamondbacks have actually been outscored his season, scoring a measly 690 runs while allowing 704.
Very few teams can even maintain even a .500 record while being outscored, and even fewer teams manage to secure a playoff spot when scoring fewer runs than they have given up. In fact, no other National League team that has been outscored is over .500.
Even more strangely, nearly all of the Diamondbacks' youngsters have failed to meet expectations. Drew, catcher Miguel Montero and right fielder Carlos Quentin have been absolutely dreadful - so much so that the latter two have lost a lot of playing time.
Jackson has not improved after a mediocre season last year and third baseman Chad Tracy, one of the team's bright spots the last few seasons, has been hurt for most of the year. Young's 32 homers and 27 stolen bases are impressive, but his .298 on-base percentage is not. While Webb has been his usual dominant self, Johnson has been injured nearly all season.
To sum up, the Diamondbacks appear to have had the season many people foresaw, but not for the reasons they expected. While the future remains bright for all of their talented youngsters, few could have imagined how poorly so many of them would perform this year. So how has Arizona managed to win so many games?
Offensively, Eric Byrnes has carried much of the slack. Byrnes's .826 OPS is third on the team (behind rookie surprise Mark Reynolds and pitcher - yes, pitcher - Micah Owings). Byrnes has 21 homers, 47 steals and has only been caught stealing seven times. He has also been fantastic defensively, which is very important for a pitching staff that relies heavily on its defense.
Second baseman Orlando Hudson, who is injured and done for the season, was in the midst of perhaps his best offensive year, posting a team-leading .374 OBP. Reynolds, filling in for Tracy at third, has been a huge surprise, compiling an .858 OPS and 17 homers in only 346 at-bats.
The key to the Diamondbacks' success this season has been their ability to hold leads. Because the offense has been lackluster, Arizona has rarely blown out its opponents. The D-Backs' success in close games can be traced directly to their incredibly solid core of relievers.
Led by closer Jose Valverde, the Diamondbacks' bullpen has helped the team to post an amazing 59-34 record in games decided by three runs or less, including 32-18 in one-run games. Valverde, Tony Pena, Doug Slaten, Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon all have ERAs under 3.30.
Given the composition of Arizona's roster and the weakness of the National League in general, the Diamondbacks have as good a chance as anyone to represent the NL in the World Series. Their offense is admittedly very weak - despite playing in the second-easiest NL ballpark to score runs, the Diamondbacks rank 13th in runs scored this year - and they have little depth in the starting rotation.
But with Webb anchoring a strong rotation, and five outstanding relievers slamming the door at the end of each game, the Diamondbacks will likely give up very few runs and be a force to be reckoned with come October.
What's perhaps more frightening to the rest of the National League is that there is still hope for many of their young, talented players such as Drew, Montero, Jackson and Young. Pitchers Dustin Nippert and Max Scherzer are also waiting in the wings to contribute, and outfielder Justin Upton has a chance to be baseball's next great superstar.
Lady Luck may have helped the Diamondbacks to the division title this year. But in the future, the rest of the NL West might need her just to keep up.
