Calm down, everyone. It hasn't even been three weeks.
For those of us who are avid fantasy players, we always want to tinker with our teams, reading as much as we can in search of an edge. While it is important to stay attuned, ready to make the next smart move, the best strategy is patience.
Fantasy baseball guru Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ (www.baseballhq.com) held an online chat April 11 about this important virtue on ESPN.com. During the chat, Shandler referenced a favorite phrase of his: EEP, which stands for Exercise Excruciating Patience.
While it is not original to use this phrase here, every fantasy owner must always keep this tactic tucked away somewhere. Do you want to drop Adam LaRoche? EEP! Do you want to give up an arm and a leg to get Orlando Hudson? EEP! Why hasn't Brett Myers pitched well? EEP! Josh Beckett for Cy Young? EEP!
There is no hard and fast rule as to how much time should elapse before judging a player. In truth, even one full season's worth of statistics can prove misleading; there is so much luck involved in the sport that one player can have a good or bad season without changing his true skill (see Gary Mathews Jr.).
To further illustrate this, go to ESPN.com's standings page. Set the date to June 1, 2006, and look at the standings on that date. June 1 is a full two months into the season, and it would seem like this is enough time to make some definitive judgments about teams or players.
And yet, on this day last year, the third-place Red Sox led the AL East; the division-champion Twins had been outscored by 35 runs and resided in fourth place in the Central, 11.5 games out of first; the division-champion Athletics were four games under .500; the wild-card contending Marlins had won one-third of their games; and the Diamondbacks led the NL West.
On June 14, 2006 - two and a half months into the season! - Richie Sexson was hitting .202 with 10 homers. Most people had written him off as having surpassed his time as a productive player.
There was, however, little reason to think that he had fallen off that much. While he is getting older, he's not old, and has had no injury concerns. Sure enough, Sexson rebounded to finish the season at .264 with 34 homers, one season after he had hit .263 with 39 homers. In other words, by the end of the season, Sexson's statistics were exactly where they should have been.
Even a seemingly large sample size of two months or even more is still not enough time to make a valid judgment about a player's ability, and thus it usually won't serve as a reliable predictor of future performance. Oftentimes, however, even major league managers and GMs do not understand this principle and will bench or demote underperforming players. Of course, if a player is not playing, he cannot help the fantasy team. But so long as playing time goes unaltered, most players will advance toward the mean numbers they have established throughout their careers.
Since this is not the time in the season when fantasy owners can start to make valid judgments about whether or not to drop a slumping player, here are some underlying factors to consider, which will help in differentiating between actual skill and bad luck.
For hitters, consider plate discipline. Compared to recent seasons, is the hitter striking out more this year or walking less? Using the statistics provided by The Hardball Times (www.thehardballtimes.com), owners can check to see if players are seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance, a sign of potential diminished skill.
Owners players' fly balls are leaving the ballpark at a lower or higher rate than usual, a sign of good or bad luck, or if their line-drive percentage is higher or lower than it has been in the past (which would lead to a higher or lower batting average than usual), which can be luck or skill (it's usually skill if it's associated with other changes, such as seeing more pitches per plate appearance).
For pitchers, consider their defensive efficiency. In other words, see if a greater or fewer number of balls than usual are turning into hits, a sign of either good or bad luck. Are they surrendering a significantly different number of fly balls than in the past - a sign of changed skill - or are a greater or fewer number of their fly balls becoming homers, a sign of good or bad luck? Has their strand percentage changed from the past? In summation, are an inordinately high or low number of runners who reach base against them actually coming around to score?
Before dropping or trading players, remember to EEP. And before assuming a player's cold start is a change in ability, remember to check his underlying statistics, which are far better predictors of what's to come than the actual statistics themselves. Sometimes the best move of the year is the one you don't make.
