This season, only one thing is for certain in the NESCAC men's basketball standings - the Amherst Lord Jeffs, with an unblemished record of 23-0, have first place locked up.
After that, it's a six-team melee for second place. And with the season winding down, the Jumbos, 4-3 in the NESCAC, are right in the thick of it as they prepare to host Bowdoin and Colby this weekend.
Bates, whose out-of-conference mark is a perfect 15-0, was touted as one of the league's top teams a month ago. But with a loss to Williams last Friday, the Bobcats now have four league losses, and are caught in a three-way tie with Colby and Middlebury for fifth place at 3-4.
That leaves three top contenders for second place in the league: Trinity, Tufts, and Williams. The Bantams are currently ahead at 6-2, but their final game is against the first-place Jeffs. If they fall to 6-3, they may be tied with either the Jumbos or Ephs, both of whom need to sweep their final weekends to reach the six-win mark.
"We want to take care of business, and hopefully get a second seed," coach Bob Sheldon said. "Then we can play somebody like Colby or Wesleyan. I think the important thing is to be second or third, so that we don't have to play Amherst until the finals. So we want to take care of this weekend and get second place."
Since so many things need to fall into place for the Jumbos to pull out a second-place tie, things may look grim. But there is a silver lining: the Jumbos beat both Trinity and Williams in the regular season, giving them sole possession of the head-to-head tiebreakers for second place. If all goes well this weekend, a two-seed and a NESCAC Tournament home game could be within reach.
"We're excited about what we've got coming up," Sheldon said. "We're one of the few teams that hold its destiny in its own hands. If we win out, then the worst we can get is third. So we hold a home NESCAC game in our hands. And we've been away for five NESCAC games. We're excited to be home."
The Jumbos are 6-2 this season and were 10-1 last year at home in Cousens Gym. Their final home NESCAC weekend brings two Maine schools, Colby and Bowdoin, to Medford for the first time since the 2004-05 campaign. While both have losing records at the moment - Colby stands at 3-4, while Bowdoin is 2-5 - neither of these teams should be overlooked.
Saturday's NESCAC finale against the Mules will feature Colby senior Drew Cohen, one of the league's best big men. Cohen led the entire nation in blocked shots last season, and is third in that category so far this year. With averages of 14.1 points and 3.4 blocks per game, the 6-foot-6-inch Cohen is a perennial contender for NESCAC Player of the Year.
"I know he's a great shot blocker, and he's probably one of the premier big guys in the league," senior tri-captain Dave Shepherd said. "I'm not saying we're going to have a tough time scoring on him, but he's probably going to be a problem offensively down low."
Cohen was missing in action last time the teams squared off on Jan. 13 of last year, but in the center's freshman season, he dropped 18 points, eight rebounds, and six blocks on the Jumbos en route to an 80-65 win on Feb. 7, 2004. Three years later, Cohen has only gotten better.
"We've got to worry about doubling Cohen," Sheldon said. "We're going to be leaving guys wide open a little bit, but we're going to double down low to stop him. They've got a good point guard, and if they get it inside, it's going to be trouble."
That point guard is senior Nick Farrell, who has emerged from anonymity this season to lead the NESCAC in scoring. With 19.4 points per game, bolstered by a league-leading 82 threes, he is sure to pose another threat for the Jumbo defenders.
Perhaps the easier game of the weekend will be with the struggling Polar Bears, whose 13-8 overall record is identical to the Jumbos'. But a 14-point loss to Colby on Saturday dropped their NESCAC record to 2-5, forcing them to the bottom of the league standings.
"I think the better match-up for us is Bowdoin," Sheldon said. "Even though they shoot a lot from outside, we don't have to worry about inside, so our guys on the wings can get up and play them."
The Bears' lineup features a pair of hot-shooting guards in senior Kevin Bradley and junior Andrew Hippert, who will look to outgun the aggressive Jumbos Friday evening. Hippert is consistently ranked in the NESCAC's top 10 scorers, currently averaging 15.0 points per game, while Bradley's 64 threes are second only to Farrell in the NESCAC ranks.
Bowdoin's big men are among the league's worst rebounders, however, while Tufts boasts some of the best. Last season, the Jumbos out-rebounded the Bears 41-36 on Jan. 14, but Hippert's 23-point performance on 5-of-7 three-point shooting brought Bowdoin an 84-70 upset win. This season, the Jumbos aren't about to let that happen again.
"It's a big weekend," Shepherd said. "Last year Bowdoin got us at their place, so we're looking for a bit of vengeance."
If the Jumbos win both games, they'll be right back in the thick of the NESCAC race, vying for another shot at Amherst in the NESCAC Tournament. The Jumbos haven't beaten the Jeffs in four years, but since their last three match-ups have gone to overtime, they're certainly looking for one more shot.
"I'm hoping we get to face Amherst again," Shepherd said. "I know we've lost to them three times in overtime, but I don't think there's a team in America that knows how to play them better than we do. We've been in a position to win those games, and we haven't, but someone's got to get them. I think we can."
