The Indianapolis Colts might be favored by a touchdown in Super Bowl XLI against the Chicago Bears, but as the majority of this decade's championship games might suggest, Sunday night's game will be a tight one. At face value, the Colts' offense might be the most impressive unit taking the field, but the Bears have the potential to surprise people. Let's break it down.
Quarterback: Peyton Manning vs. Rex Grossman
He could quite possibly go down as one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history in terms of statistics, but until he grabs a Super Bowl, Manning will always be the Greatest Player Never to Win. He has everything to prove, and everything to lose on Sunday, while his counterpart, Grossman, will take the field with relatively little pressure.
Before the playoffs even began, there was speculation as to how long it would take for Lovie Smith to bench his unreliable starting quarterback. But impressive wins over Seattle and New Orleans have given Grossman a new found confidence. Grossman will have to come out gunning in the first half of Sunday's game, because while Manning has proven his ability to adapt, as seen in his second half resurgence against New England, a flustered Grossman could lead to a quick end for the Bears.
Statistically, while Manning has outpaced Grossman in the regular season, they aren't that far apart. Manning threw for 4,397 yards with a 65 percent completion percentage and 31 touchdowns, while Grossman threw for 3,193 yards with a 54.6 percent completion percentage and 23 touchdowns. But while Manning threw only nine picks in the regular season, Grossman turned it over 20 times. In the postseason the Bears' quarterback has been phenomenal, throwing only one interception, while Manning has been picked off six times. On Sunday, these two teams' wins and losses will mean nothing. What will matter is which quarterback shows up.
Edge: Toss-up
Running back: Joseph Addai vs. Thomas Jones
Everyone figured the Colts would sorely miss the running game of Edgerrin James this season. But rookie Joseph Addai posted a plus 1,000-yard season, with 1,081 yards on 226 attempts. His seven touchdowns led the team and he only had two fumbles on the season. In the playoffs he has rushed for 217 yards and recorded two touchdowns.
The Bears, meanwhile, offer up an equally effective running game in the form of Thomas Jones. Jones finished the season with 1,210 yards and six touchdowns, while in the postseason he's carried his team with four touchdowns on 189 yards rushing. Against a weak Colts rush defense, Jones should have his best game this postseason. And if their respective quarterbacks, especially Manning, continue to struggle moving the ball through the air, look for one of these guys to turn the tide for his team.
Both teams also offer a quality veteran backup, as Cedric Benson has emerged for Chicago late in the season while Dominic Rhodes has been a consistent contributor for the Colts all season long.
Edge: Bears
Wide receivers
Manning to Harrison is getting to be about as synonymous as Young to Rice. Marvin Harrison was Manning's go-to-guy this season, with 95 receptions for 1,366 yards and 12 touchdowns. And with the always-dangerous options of Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, the Colts have easily the best receiving corps in the Super Bowl. Manning has yet to find Harrison in the end zone this postseason, however, and against the stalwart defense of the Baltimore Ravens, Wayne, Harrison and Clark were held to only 11 receptions for 137 yards combined and no touchdowns.
On Sunday, Grossman will rely on the hands of Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian, who emerged as his favorite targets in the regular season. Muhammad finished the year with 863 yards and five touchdowns, with Berrian adding 775 yards and six touchdowns. In the postseason, Berrian has notched two touchdowns and 190 yards, including a 68-yard touchdown reception against the Seattle Seahawks. Look for a solid outing from Berrian on Sunday.
Edge: Colts
Defense
In the second half of the regular season, teams began to realize just how one-dimensional the Indianapolis Mannings really were. And while Manning answered for every touchdown his defense allowed, come Super Bowl time, Manning may learn why defense wins championships. The Colts have allowed an average of 332 yards of offense, including 173 rush yards and in fourth down situations, opponents have made 11-of-14 chances. Plus the defense has only 15 interceptions to its name.
The Bears, on the other hand, have been one of the most solid defensive walls in the NFL. Led by rookie right end Mark Anderson, with 12 sacks on the season and bolstered by 6.5 sacks from defensive end Adewale Ogunleye, the Bears also logged 24 interceptions in the regular season. And of course there is the always-hovering presence of veteran linebacker Brian Urlacher. Whether that will be enough to stop Manning will have to be seen, but as New England showed in the AFC Championship, it was able to rush Manning into mistakes, and the Bears might learn from the Patriots' example and play a complete game defensively.
Edge: Bears
