As soon as I cast my ballot for George W. on Nov. 2, I'm headingfor the nearest quiet cave I can find to wait out the coming civilwar. This war, "CW2" as I'll call it, has been building steam fortwenty years, and the Reds and Blues aren't going to wait muchlonger.
Everyone's a pundit now, and if there's anything the nation'stalking heads agree on, it's that our nation is split down theideological middle. Nothing is apolitical anymore; every singleidea, product, philosophy and TV screen has been co-opted by one ofour two major parties, and they're hunting your vote. You might notknow it, but your concern for your family's safety just made you aRepublican, and they're coming to get you. The Democrats, thosechampions of ambivalence and delicacy, heard you say "flateconomy," and they're heading your way in a most un-nuancedfashion.
Like your Chevy Suburban? Tree-hugging be darned, you're votingfor Bush!
Got a soft spot for the poor? Don a trendy Che Guevara t-shirtand (peacefully) grab a Kerry sign!
If nothing else, presidential politics have now provided nearlyeveryone in America with someone to demonize, and thosepundit-friendly electoral vote maps make it painfully clear that weare energetically hating along the same lines as those that formedour national boundaries for a few bloody years during the CivilWar.
The above map reveals a bitter, nearly equal divide betweenDemocratic and Republican states. The details change with each newpoll, but as of Oct. 14, seventeen states are polling "strong" forBush; seven (including Washington D.C.) are "strong" for Kerry.Nine are "weak" for Bush, six are "weak" for Kerry, four are"barely Bush" and three are "barely Kerry." Three - New Jersey,Iowa and New Hampshire - are tied. Here's the easy arithmetic: theHeartland, most of the Southwest and the South are as conservativeas your mom's Toyota, and the Northern coasts are ready to headback to Britain.
One hundred and forty-one years ago, the United States seemedintractably divided along the same lines; bitter enmity dividedRepublican, capitalist New England from the Democratic, lesscapitalist southern states over a struggle for America's moral andConstitutional heart. A map of the popular vote in 1860 shows thedeep southern states as solidly Democratic, the North and Midwestas heavily supporting Lincoln, a Republican, and the border states-Missouri, Kentucky, Virginia - are a whirled mix of counties forBell, Douglas and Breckinridge.
The immediate impression is this: the formerly solidlyDemocratic states are now solidly Republican the solidly Democraticstates are Republican, and the tightly contested "border" statesare still bitterly divided, but leaning, as then, towards theSouth. These contested states did not secede during the war; theirpopulations were too divided over the slavery issue to sustain awar with neighboring states.
This regionalism was exacerbated with the contention over theMexican-American War (a war led by southern hawks and lamented bythe North's moral voices; sound familiar?), and was affirmed withLincoln's election. The Republican candidate confined his campaignto the North and Midwest and easily won.
According to John Abbott, an opinionated Civil War historianwhose 140-year-old text sits in our Tisch Library, slave-owningAmerica was less Christian and far less committed to democracy thanits northern counterparts. He notes distinctly different culturesbetween America's regions, and singles out New England inparticular for its differences. The historian cites discussionbefore the outset of the Civil War as to whether Maine should begiven back to Britain, and whether New England should form its ownConfederacy.
The issues have changed since then; today, southern churchesmock northern religion as liberalized beyond any resemblance to theNew Testament, and their voices condemn abortion as modern-dayslavery. Economic realities have changed as well; Atlanta nowsports the nation's busiest airport, and Georgia senator ZellMiller recently proclaimed our state "Taxachusetts" for a reason.The North is now seen as the bureaucratized home of Americanaristocrats like the Kennedy and Kerry families. Liberalnortherners, meanwhile, see southerners as backwards Bible-beltersand criticize them for trying to vote their values into law (cursethat democratic process!).
The regional divisions have persisted for 150 years and now, inthe era of the culture war and preemptive strike, we seemsufficiently piqued to give it another go. This year's electoralmap tells me that conservatives will have a devastating tacticaladvantage once CW2 begins. The nation's already divided; now, allthat remains is to conquer, and once conservatives decide to fightit out, the coastal libbies don't stand a chance.
It's not just that Reds control nearly all of middle America;it's what they've got. Middle America has a strong vehicularadvantage. Caterpillars, tractors, SUVs and pick-ups will prove adecisive advantage on the plain and prairie battlefields; theliberal fleet of aging sedans and dinky hybrids won't stand achance. The North's industrial advantage is essentially gone, andTexas boasts three of the most populous cities in the country.Suburban sprawl has outfitted the South with untold legions ofpaintball-playing, SUV driving kids ready to fight at the drop of atobacco spittoon. The Che Guevara wannabes don't stand achance.
Scared yet? Well, don't be. In truth, "CW2" is incrediblyunlikely now, because most of our states no longer have the"critical mass" needed to ferment a revolt. Kentucky, a "slavestate," couldn't secede from the Union during the Civil War becauseits population was too politically diverse. Today's bitterdivisions are best understood not as Red vs. Blue States, but Redvs. Blue Counties.
Nearly every state's party loyalties are closely split, with oneparty generally gaining the advantage by less than twenty percent.States like Utah, Texas and Georgia are outliers for theRepublicans, as are New York, Rhode Island and Massachusetts forthe Democrats.
So we should be safe on Election Day after all. Still, if youneed me, I'll be in my cave, and I'm not coming out until it'sover.
Matthew Dysart is a Tufts alum, class of 2004.
