Choices for fantasy baseball imminent

Spring training started last Wednesday, which means that you have less than two months to draft your fantasy team. Indeed, spring training is a fun time, but the fantasy experts out there know not to read too much into it -- unless of course a big star (like Jason Giambi, please, please, please) has some sort of season-effecting injury. Right now, the best thing you can do for your future fantasy team is check out last year's stats, figure out your strategy, and read my fantasy articles.

Today, I'll be talking about those unpredictable pitchers. In most fantasy leagues, the number of innings you're allowed for your pitchers is limited. This makes good pitching a precious commodity. While you'll be trying to get as many batters in for as many games as possible, your pitchers will fill in your quota months before the season ends if you play them all at every start. The goal is to get the most quality innings you can with the pitchers you have.

So, my view of fantasy pitching is that you're looking for consistency. You want the most innings from your best pitchers, and have to rely on your best pitchers coming through. That's why I'll take Greg Maddux, for instance, before Matt Morris. Morris will get the Ks and frequently have a phenomenal outing, but he will also get hit hard on occasion. Simply put, Maddux won't.

The big name pitchers in this year's fantasy draft won't change much from last year, or even three years ago. Everybody out there should know that Randy Johnson is still the man. This guy has averaged more than 250 innings over the past five years, and he hasn't slowed down. Some would take Curt Schilling first, but he doesn't have nearly the history that Johnson has. Pedro Martinez goes third among pitchers. He has the best numbers out there, especially in terms of consistency, but the threat of injury is always present.

No pitcher is totally reliable, not even these guys, so I wouldn't take a pitcher number one in the draft. Take the Big Unit ahead of A-Rod or Alfonso Soriano only if there are more non-save fantasy pitching categories in your league than fantasy batting categories. It's not really about the best player but about the best player for your league.

Other pitchers who should go really early are the two Roys -- Oswalt and Halladay. Oswalt is destined to be the next big-contract pitcher and Halladay is nothing but young and talented. Next come the Oakland Athletics' stars Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, and Tim Hudson. These guys have all shown flashes of brilliance, but this looks like the year for Hudson to be the fantasy ace among them.

More consistency and less flair should then get you Maddux, whose age shouldn't matter, and Bartolo Colon, who hopefully will keep his ERA down in Chicago. Then you should go for guys with tons of those valuable Ks. Among them are Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett. They'll get hit hard on occasion, but they'll always get strikeouts.

Players to break out? Randy Wolf had a beautiful second half in 2002, and Wade Miller was a sick fantasy pick-up last year, but a first-half injury made his numbers look mediocre. Mark Buehrle, Jarrod Washburn, and Jason Schmidt are all moving up in the world. Also, Damian Moss claims that he can win twenty games and his K/BB ratio is looking pretty good. Look also for Brian Lawrence as a solid late round pick.

Risks? I wouldn't put all your hopes on last year's veteran fantasy stars. These include Derek Lowe, Kevin Millwood, or Tom Glavine. Javiez Vazquez, Josh Beckett, and Hideo Nomo have all had their moments in the sun, but I feel like something will always keep these guys from being huge.

Closers are a tough call, and every year the leading fantasy closers change. These guys are streaky and you can always scrap together a few saves off the waiver wire at any time. John Smoltz will most likely continue his dominance, and there's no reason why Eric Gagne won't be great again. Trevor Hoffman is already done for the season and Mariano Rivera will get injured soon. I would say don't waste draft picks on anyone other than Smoltz, Gagne, Troy Percival, Robb Nen, or Byung-Hyung Kim. These are the only valuable closers who will get you strikeouts on top of saves without running your ERA up too high.

And who is the biggest question mark for fantasy pitchers? It's Kevin Brown, who is finally healthy and is still loaded with talent. It's a risk to take him before your infield is set, but I say go for it if you're feeling gutsy. He had a good inning vs. the Astros on Sunday, but you know what they say about spring training.